On May 21, 2025, the Hong Kong Legislative Council unanimously passed the Stablecoin Ordinance, becoming the first jurisdiction in the world to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat currency stablecoins, which has attracted widespread attention in the market. On the surface, stablecoins are still anchored by the US dollar and backed by US bonds, which seems to strengthen the global status of the US dollar. But in essence, it is "untying" the US dollar from the traditional bank clearing system, allowing global funds to bypass the SWIFT network and multiple layers of regulation and complete cross-border flows directly on-chain.

Stablecoins do not challenge the credit essence of the US dollar, but quietly rewrite the circulation paths of the dollar, the selection of funding destinations, and the pricing methods of global capital—this is a revolution about "path" rather than "currency." This article takes the new regulations in Hong Kong as a starting point, systematically analyzing the institutional logic behind stablecoins, the impact paths on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, and the real investment opportunities that benefit from it.

Stablecoin: "On-chain Dollar" system interface and credit mapping

Essentially, stablecoins are not a brand new form of currency, but rather an extension of the existing monetary system under digital technology conditions. They are based on the logic of "anchoring real assets and circulating on the blockchain," mapping the value of fiat currency onto the chain through technological means, forming a financial tool that combines the efficiency of digital transmission with the payment capability of fiat currency.

The emergence of stablecoins has filled the gap of the lack of connection channels between the traditional financial system and the cryptocurrency asset system, enabling digital assets to have stronger trading stability and cross-border payment capabilities.

In the consensus of global mainstream regulatory agencies and research institutions, stablecoins are generally divided into three categories: fiat-backed, crypto-asset collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins. Each type of stablecoin has distinct differences in issuance mechanisms, stabilization methods, and risk exposures.

The first category is fiat-backed stablecoins, such as USDT and USDC. Their basic mechanism is: the issuer issues stablecoins based on market demand and synchronously deposits an equivalent amount of fiat currency reserves (usually in US dollars or short-term government bonds) off-chain. Each unit of stablecoin held by users is backed by real fiat assets.

This type of stablecoin is closest to traditional currency systems, with a clear credit basis and strong stability, but it also relies heavily on the reserve transparency and audit credibility of the issuer. For example, the issuer of USDC, Circle, regularly publishes reserve reports audited by third parties to enhance market trust.

The second type is collateralized stablecoins, such as DAI. Its operating logic is to collateralize mainstream digital assets like Ethereum on-chain and generate stablecoins at a certain ratio. This model does not rely on the banking system and is fully executed by smart contracts.

However, due to the volatility of its collateral prices, the system needs to set a higher collateralization rate (e.g., 150%) and continuously monitor liquidation risks. This mechanism ensures the decentralization of independence but also brings stability risks when the prices of collateral assets fluctuate drastically.

The third category is algorithmic stablecoins, such as the widely discussed UST. This type of stablecoin maintains price stability by setting a mechanism for adjusting the supply of coins (usually a "dual-token model"), theoretically requiring no physical or crypto asset reserves.

However, the 2022 UST thunderstorm proved that this kind of stability mechanism is highly dependent on market expectations and arbitrage momentum, and once confidence is lost, it is easy to fall into a vicious circle, causing the price of stablecoins to quickly de-anchor or even clear to zero.

Overall, the reason stablecoins are widely used is that they facilitate the circulation path between digital assets and real fiat currencies. They exhibit significant efficiency advantages in scenarios such as OTC trading, cross-border payments, and DeFi applications—supporting round-the-clock settlement, lower transaction fees, and the absence of intermediaries. For example, USDT's average daily on-chain transfer volume consistently ranks among the top in the cryptocurrency market, reflecting its high activity as a medium of exchange.

However, it should be emphasized that stablecoins do not operate independently from the existing financial system; their stability essentially relies on the credit status of underlying assets and the institutional environment. Whether it is the US dollar, crypto assets, or market sentiment, any change in their supporting conditions may trigger the risk of stablecoins losing their peg or facing a run.

For this reason, regulatory agencies in various countries have begun to formulate specific rules for stablecoins. Taking Hong Kong as an example, in May 2025, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched the world's first comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring stablecoins to have a 100% fiat currency reserve, prohibiting anonymous transactions and leverage operations, and integrating them into the existing payment system regulation. This not only establishes a legal identity for stablecoins but also provides an institutional foundation for their integration with the traditional financial system.

In summary, the core significance of stablecoins is not to replace fiat currency, but to provide a digital and efficient way for cross-border circulation. While enhancing payment efficiency, it also brings a series of deep-seated challenges such as the blurring of sovereign currency boundaries and the redistribution of capital flows.

Dollar Hegemony:** The Three-Tier Mechanism of Global "Financial Rent-Seeking"**

Understanding the structural impact of stablecoins cannot be limited to their surface characteristics of payment convenience and advanced technology. What they disrupt is the path of the US dollar in global capital flows.

From the essence of dollar hegemony, the dominance of the dollar in the contemporary international financial system is not only due to it being the most widely used trading currency in the world, but more importantly, it is supported by a complete set of capital circulation systems centered around the United States.

This system allows the United States not only to continuously output currency but also to rely on external capital inflows to maintain domestic fiscal operations, thus achieving a stable positive cycle of "low-cost financing - asset appreciation - capital repatriation."

This cyclical system can be roughly divided into three core mechanisms:

The first layer is the global money supply mechanism, which is dominated by U.S. bonds. The U.S. government maintains a huge fiscal deficit every year, and continues to issue Treasury bonds for this purpose. As the U.S. dollar is the international reserve currency, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and financial institutions around the world buy U.S. bonds passively or actively to protect their foreign payment, investment, and trade needs.

This means that the United States can turn its domestic deficit into a global burden by issuing government bonds, achieving a continuous absorption of external funds. This "debt-for-currency" method allows the United States to be the only country that can borrow global capital in its own currency for a long time.

The second layer is the dollar-dominated pricing system for financial assets. Major global commodities and financial assets are priced in dollars. For example, crude oil, gold, and copper are settled in dollars; at the same time, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds hold an important position in the asset allocation of global investors.

Whether it is the energy imports of developing countries or the asset allocation of global institutions, it is inevitable to avoid the US dollar. This pricing power often causes global capital to "flow back to the United States" during shifts in risk appetite, making US stocks and bonds a "safe haven" or liquidity pool.

The third layer is the cross-border payment and clearing system controlled by the US dollar. Currently, the vast majority of cross-border capital flows rely on the SWIFT system, which is essentially a "financial communication network" dominated by the West, with significant influence from the United States.

This not only means that dollar settlements have a universal advantage, but also that the United States has the ability to monitor and even interrupt global funding paths. A typical example is the financial sanctions imposed by the United States on countries such as Iran and Russia, which directly restrict their use of the dollar system for international trade.

Through these three mechanisms, the United States has achieved a broad capacity to absorb global financial resources. Capital flows from around the world to the U.S., and then returns in larger volumes through investment returns or financial product exports, forming a continuous cycle of "dollar output - U.S. Treasury repurchase - financial service revenue."

Many investors in the market refer to this system as the "financial rent collection mechanism of the dollar", that is, the "financial rent" of global capital collected by the United States through institutionalized means without directly providing goods or services.

Within this framework, the core advantage of dollar hegemony is not the issuance of currency itself, but the ability to control the paths of how currency flows, how capital is priced, and how transactions are settled. The U.S. controls the channels, rather than just the currency units themselves.

However, it is precisely on these paths and channels that the challenge of stablecoins lies, not in replacing the dollar itself, but in changing the way the dollar "flows" in the global system. Specifically, although the current mainstream stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) still anchor their value to the dollar and even use U.S. Treasury bonds as their main reserve assets, they have not directly impacted the credit of the dollar itself, but they are gradually changing the model of how the dollar "circulates."

Stablecoins bypass the SWIFT system, enabling peer-to-peer transactions on blockchain networks without the need for bank accounts or clearinghouses. Although their reserve structure is still primarily based on the US dollar, it can theoretically be diversified over time to include gold, euros, Hong Kong dollars, or even digital renminbi as anchor assets.

More importantly, stablecoins shift the circulation of the US dollar from official channels to on-chain paths dominated by market institutions or smart contracts. This means that the transaction paths and settlement nodes originally controlled by the US banking regulatory system have been transferred to technological networks and private entities. This trend of "dollar outsourcing" will not lead to the collapse of the dollar's credit, but will begin to decentralize the control of the dollar circulation paths.

Therefore, stablecoins have not overturned the monetary status of the US dollar, but they are changing the way the dollar plays its global role. This is a subtle change in the operation of the dollar system, and its impact may be more profound than it appears on the surface.

**Stablecoin Impact: New Buyers of U.S. Treasuries, Old Order of the Dollar

At the current stage, stablecoins act as amplifiers of the US dollar's circulation ability. Fiat-collateralized stablecoins represented by USDT and USDC are widely circulated on global crypto trading platforms, DeFi protocols, and OTC payment channels, allowing US dollar assets to enter gray areas and marginal markets that traditional financial systems struggle to cover. For example, in countries and regions with strict capital controls or limited US dollar clearing, stablecoins have become alternative vehicles for the "digital dollar," enhancing the usability of the US dollar.

This "on-chain dollar" has three prominent advantages: First, low transaction costs, not relying on the banking system or the SWIFT network; second, high execution efficiency, enabling real-time settlement 24/7; third, more freedom in cross-border transfers, allowing circulation among multiple main chains. For this reason, stablecoins effectively construct an "offshore payment network" for the dollar, enhancing the technical adaptability of the dollar as a medium of exchange.

At the same time, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, reverse repurchase agreements, and cash-like assets dominate the reserve assets of most stablecoins. Taking Tether as an example, its publicly available reserve data for 2024 shows that about 70% of its assets are allocated to U.S. Treasury bonds and bank time deposits that mature within three months. This means that while stablecoins strengthen the functionality of the U.S. dollar, they also objectively provide new marginal buyers for the U.S. Treasury bond market, alleviating some structural pressure on funds.

This new channel of "stablecoin - US dollar - US Treasury" essentially creates a mechanism for the re-circulation of dollar credit via "on-chain issuance - off-chain allocation". The dollar flows into the market in the form of stablecoins, and the market's demand for holding stablecoins, in turn, requires the reserve allocation of US Treasuries, thereby forming a new scenario of demand for US Treasuries driven by technology.

For example, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) recently released a research report entitled "Stablecoins and Safe Asset Prices", which for the first time systematically quantified the marginal impact of stablecoins on the U.S. short-term Treasury market. The study found that stablecoins, represented by USDT and USDC, have become a new type of buyer of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds (3-month T-bill), and there is a clear quantitative relationship between their capital inflows and changes in U.S. Treasury yields.

Specifically, the report tracked the net subscription changes of major stablecoins globally from 2021 to early 2025 and conducted a regression analysis with the daily yield of 3-month U.S. Treasury bonds. The results showed that when the stablecoin market experiences a net subscription of approximately $3.5 billion (equivalent to about 2 standard deviations of inflow), the short-term U.S. Treasury bond yield can be suppressed by 2–2.5 basis points within 10 days; whereas when there is an equal scale of redemption outflows, the corresponding rate increase reaches 6–8 basis points.

Especially at a time when the Federal Reserve is still in a high interest rate environment and the banking system's willingness to hold debts is limited, the flow direction of on-chain dollars is becoming increasingly sensitive to short-term yields.

It is foreseeable that after the rapid development of stablecoins, they will become marginal buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, and if the scale continues to grow, they will have a significant impact on the interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds.

However, it is more noteworthy that the strengthening of this dollar credit recycling mechanism is limited and carries structural risks.** Once observed from the perspective of the dollar control path rather than the quantity used, it may be found that the development of stablecoins is "eroding" the institutional foundation of the dollar system.**

First, the issuance and settlement rights of stablecoins have been transferred from official institutions to private companies and on-chain protocols. USDT is dominated by Tether, while USDC is issued by Circle. Their reserve operations, settlement standards, and compliance enforcement are not directly regulated by the U.S. Treasury or the Federal Reserve. The U.S. government has lost real-time control over these "on-chain dollars," meaning that the use of the dollar is gradually detaching from its traditional financial regulatory framework.

Secondly, the credit foundation of stablecoins has shifted from "national sovereignty" to "corporate credit" and "market confidence." Once a redemption crisis or reserve depletion occurs, on-chain dollars will face liquidity runs, resulting in a chain reaction of "decoupling—transmission—collapse." USDT has faced redemption doubts multiple times in 2021 and 2023, causing short-term market fluctuations. Such events indicate that although the circulation of stablecoins is convenient, their credit reliance is extremely fragile.

Finally, the reserve assets of stablecoins are highly concentrated in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and repurchase agreements, which pushes the U.S. debt system towards a higher sensitivity to liquidity. Once stablecoin issuers encounter large-scale redemptions, they must quickly liquidate their U.S. Treasury assets, which may lead to amplified price fluctuations in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby increasing liquidity risks.

In the longer term, once some stablecoins start to introduce non-US dollar reserve assets, such as gold, Hong Kong dollars, CNH, or other sovereign currencies, the US dollar's exclusive position as a stable anchor will also be challenged. Once this multi-currency anchoring mechanism scales up, it will fundamentally weaken the US dollar's monopoly position in cross-chain payments and DeFi systems.

**As mentioned above, stablecoins amplify the convenience of U.S. dollar transactions, but weaken their institutional control, presenting a structural dislocation of "use more, manage less". **On the surface, stablecoins make the U.S. dollar more accessible and globally penetrating, expanding its trading reach. At the bottom level, it partially detached the issuance and regulation of the dollar from the sovereign system, making the dollar a "denomination tool in market contracts" rather than a "state-controlled liquidation currency".

Once the scale of stablecoins continues to grow in the future, the value anchoring logic to the US dollar may reverse: it is not the dollar that supports stablecoins, but stablecoins that dominate the circulation path of the dollar.

For U.S. Treasury bonds, stablecoins serve as a source of short-term funds, but they may also pose a risk of credit transfer. On one hand, the allocation of stablecoins to short-term U.S. Treasury bonds creates demand support; on the other hand, the extreme volatility of stablecoin liquidity could become a potential destabilizing factor in the U.S. Treasury bond market.

Cross-Border Channels:** How Stablecoins Restructure Global Capital Flow Structures?**

In the traditional financial system, the flow of cross-border funds heavily relies on the banking system and national regulatory pathways. When enterprises or individuals want to conduct international payments, they often need to rely on the SWIFT network to complete wire transfers, which have long payment cycles, high fees, and complex reviews. The emergence of stablecoins provides an alternative pathway for global capital flow.

Relying on blockchain technology, stablecoins possess inherent cross-border universality. Whether in Asia, Africa, or Latin America, holders only need to have a blockchain wallet to complete peer-to-peer transfers at any time, unrestricted by bank operating hours, geographical location, or traditional compliance channels. This mechanism, which operates around the clock, offers transparent on-chain records and irreversible transactions, significantly lowering the technical barriers for cross-border capital transfers.

For emerging markets, stablecoins provide a low-cost access channel to US dollar liquidity. In many regions, due to insufficient foreign exchange reserves or significant volatility of local currencies, traditional dollar channels are subject to strict restrictions or high market costs. Against this backdrop, stablecoins like USDT and USDC have become alternative options for "on-chain dollars," allowing local merchants, cross-border traders, and individual investors to bypass the banking system to achieve indirect access to and transfer of US dollars.

Moreover, stablecoins are becoming the liquidity foundation of on-chain financial systems (DeFi). In multiple decentralized exchanges, stablecoins are the most common trading pairs and collateral assets, playing a role similar to that of a "dollar demand deposit account." Global funds can enter on-chain protocols via stablecoins for activities such as lending, market-making, and contract trading, and then be transferred back off-chain. This cycle of "on-chain absorption – off-chain release" creates a funding flow network parallel to traditional finance.

However, the significance of stablecoins is not limited to efficiency improvements; it also changes the "regulatory process" of global capital flows.

In the traditional model, international funds entering a country must go through regulatory approvals, foreign exchange approvals, and cross-border settlement systems, allowing the country to control the pace of capital inflow and outflow. However, the path of stablecoins bypasses these entry points, with funds entering local wallets directly after transactions are completed on the chain, making it difficult for regulators to track the source and purpose in real-time.

In 2025, Hong Kong officially launched the world's first comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, marking the partial inclusion of this "pathway circumvention" gray area into the compliance system. Hong Kong regulators no longer deny the existence of stablecoins but instead seek to define them as compliant trading tools, integrating them into the local financial architecture. This provides international funds with a new channel that is "non-U.S. controlled, non-traditional, but with regulatory endorsement."

Its potential impact cannot be underestimated. In the past, the flow of US dollars into Asian markets often had to go through the New York clearing system or London financial institutions. Now, it may directly flow from wallets in Europe and the United States to Hong Kong through on-chain stablecoins, and then via local compliant bridges to mainland China or other Southeast Asian countries. This means that stablecoins have become not only a tool to replace the US dollar but also a new type of funding bridge connecting different national financial systems.

In the future, as more regions establish local stablecoin regulatory frameworks, a global capital circulation network that coexists with traditional clearing systems may gradually take shape. This network is not bank-centric and does not rely on negotiations between sovereign currencies, but is based on a decentralized system using crypto assets as a medium and smart contracts as rules. It will promote further diversification of capital flows and present unprecedented challenges to regulators in various countries.

Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulations": **** Institutionalization of On-chain US Dollar Rights

Hong Kong's Stablecoins Ordinance was first gazetted on 6 December 2024 and passed by the Legislative Council on 21 May 2025 and is expected to come into effect on 1 August 2025. This is the world's first stablecoin institutional arrangement established at the central bank level, covering the whole chain of issuance, platform and custody.

It clearly defines stablecoins as "payment instruments," requiring issuers to hold 100% fiat reserves, operate with a license, and prohibits anonymity, leverage, and algorithmic coins. This move is not to relax cryptocurrency trading but to build a "compliant dollar channel" in Asia, providing a legal path for dollar stablecoins to enter the Chinese market without challenging its monetary sovereignty.

From the perspective of the global US dollar payment system, the biggest significance of this regulation is that it provides a legal circulation place for US dollar stablecoins outside the United States. As the regulatory environment in the US becomes increasingly stringent, companies such as Circle and Tether will find Hong Kong to be their preferred "channel" for entering Asia. This not only addresses the compliance barriers faced by US dollar assets when going abroad, but also allows some US dollar funds to enter the broader Asian market through Hong Kong.

This regulation is also significant for the Hong Kong dollar. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, which itself is an "extension" of the US dollar. If in the future, the reserve assets of stablecoins can include the Hong Kong dollar, or if stablecoins can be settled and custodied locally in Hong Kong, then the Hong Kong dollar will transform from a supplementary currency into a "settlement currency" for on-chain US dollars. This will enhance the frequency of use and market value of Hong Kong dollar assets.

From the perspective of strategic research, the greater change brought about by Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" is in the Hong Kong stock market.

In the past, payment companies, identity verification service providers, and data security vendors, although possessing certain technical capabilities, were often viewed as auxiliary tool-type enterprises in valuation models. However, after the compliance of stablecoins, their roles have changed. As long as these companies can provide payment interfaces, real-name verification services, or transaction monitoring systems for the circulation of stablecoins, they possess the ability to enable global funds to comply locally.

For example, companies like Alipay Hong Kong and Hang Seng Electronics, if they can connect with the compliance standards of the Monetary Authority, providing transaction verification, fund custody, and risk control services, may rise from an auxiliary role to a "necessary node" in the stablecoin system. The value of such enterprises will no longer depend on their current revenue scale, but rather on whether they possess the technology and qualifications to enable the stablecoin to be "compliant and operational". This change means that their valuation logic will be rewritten.

This is also why some Hong Kong stock companies recently experienced significant fluctuations in their stock prices following the policy announcement. The market is not speculating on a certain concept, but rather pricing in advance who can truly capture the new path of on-chain US dollar flow, and who can play a key role in crucial aspects such as stablecoin settlement, identity auditing, and fund tracking in the future.

In contrast, the "stablecoin theme" performance of the A-share market is still more conceptualized. As the capital account remains tightly controlled, stablecoins are unlikely to become a universally used payment instrument. Therefore, the "stablecoin concept stocks" in A-shares are more of a short-term game stimulated by news. The reason for this is that very few A-share companies have the ability to actually participate in the on-chain stablecoin system, lack a cross-border clearing interface, and have not yet established close cooperation with Hong Kong or international compliance platforms.

From a mid-term perspective, companies in the A-share market that are truly worth paying attention to should simultaneously possess the following three points: First, they should have a business foundation in cross-border payment or data certification systems; second, they should have technological capabilities for on-chain identity verification, compliance auditing, or fund custody; third, they should have practical project collaboration with the Hong Kong financial management system. Only such companies are likely to gain substantial benefits when on-chain stablecoin channels open in the future.

Therefore, the introduction of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong will not result in a traditional "broad market rally." Enterprises that are in core service links and can collaborate with the Monetary Authority or large issuers will be the first to gain market attention. On a deeper level, this round of reform is not just about stablecoins themselves, but about the redistribution of where global capital lands and who can participate in the landing process. In the context of tightening regulations on the global circulation of the US dollar system, Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulations" essentially provide a "compliant transit point outside of the United States" for global capital, offering a more efficient and neutral outlet for global capital flows.

For investors, determining who truly possesses the capability to provide grounded services is the real investment direction under the development of the stablecoin market. From this perspective, even if a traditional fintech company is currently barely profitable, if it has established a first-mover advantage in areas such as stablecoin payments and on-chain asset custody, its valuation logic should be repriced according to "new path infrastructure providers."

Transitioning from "profit-oriented" to "path-oriented" capital pricing logic—Those who can find their "position" in the global flow of funds network reshaped by stablecoins will be the first to benefit from the development of stablecoins.

Investment Advice

The establishment of a regulatory framework for stablecoins marks a new legitimate landing channel for dollar assets in the Asian market. From an investment perspective, the core of this transformation lies not in the fluctuations of stablecoins themselves, but in identifying who can become the "key nodes" on the new capital flow paths. When the investment logic shifts from "profit-oriented" to "path-oriented," infrastructure providers that possess the ability to "capture the new paths" will welcome a historic opportunity for valuation reconstruction.

In this context, it is recommended that investment strategies revolve around three main lines:

First Main Line: On-chain financial service infrastructure enterprises, focusing on targets with practical application capabilities in areas such as issuance, payment, identity verification, and fund custody. In the Hong Kong stock market, companies like Alipay Hong Kong and Hang Seng Electronics are expected to become key support points for the cross-border circulation of stablecoins. Their value will no longer depend on current revenue scale, but on whether they can provide technical interfaces and service capabilities for the compliant landing of stablecoins.

In the A-share market, companies that possess cross-border payment qualifications, have a reserve of blockchain technology, or have a cooperative foundation with the Hong Kong financial system are worth mid-term tracking. Once these companies can meet the compliance standards of the Monetary Authority and provide transaction verification, fund custody, and risk control services, they may rise from an auxiliary role to a "necessary node" within the stablecoin system.

Second Main Line: Opportunities for a Pilot System of Renminbi Stablecoins. Focus on the potential pilot opportunities for Renminbi stablecoins in Hong Kong. If in the future, Chinese banks or fintech companies are granted policy authorization to pilot the issuance of Renminbi stablecoins in Hong Kong, related service providers will be the first to benefit from this institutional breakthrough.

Enterprises equipped with on-chain identity systems and compliance audit modules will gain substantial development opportunities in the cross-border application of the digital renminbi. This direction represents a forward-looking layout that combines the internationalization of the renminbi with stablecoin technology, which is worth long-term attention.

Third Main Line: The Strategic Revaluation of Hong Kong Dollar Assets is Worth Noting. With the legalization of stablecoin settlement in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Dollar is expected to evolve from a purely "linked exchange rate currency" to an "on-chain backing asset" for US dollar funds, significantly expanding its use cases as a reserve currency. Its use cases as a reserve currency will expand, and the valuation system of related financial and technology Hong Kong stocks is expected to be systematically adjusted upward.

Risk Warning: The regulatory policies for stablecoins are still in a rapid evolution phase, and there is uncertainty in the regulatory attitudes of various countries; the implementation details of Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" fall short of expectations; escalating global geopolitical risks affect cross-border capital flows; the tight liquidity in the US debt market affects the liquidation of stablecoin reserve assets; global liquidity is tightening more than expected.