#TRUMP流通量激增# Trump coin is facing a large amount of unlocking.

April 18: A cliff-style unlock of 40 million coins (accounting for 20% of the circulation), valued at $321 million;
Starting from April 20: Daily unlock of 3.8 million USD tokens for a period of 1096 days; By early 2026: Circulation is expected to exceed 50%, entering a peak of mid-term selling pressure;
April 2028: All 1 billion coins have been unlocked, with insiders holding 80%.
Market Trend Analysis After Unlocking
Bearish Logic: Selling Pressure and Trust Crisis
1. Chip Oversupply: In a short period, 40 million tokens have flooded the market. If holders collectively sell off, it could lead to a price crash. Historically, there are numerous cases of similar projects (like OM coin) experiencing declines of over 90% after unlocking.
2. Insider cash-out risk: Approximately $3.42 million in unlocked tokens will be transferred to the Trump-associated wallet CIC Digital 1, $380,000 will be transferred to CIC Digital 4, and a long-term daily unlock will also allocate $1.58 million to other internal wallets.
3. Loss of community confidence: The number of TRUMP holding addresses has decreased from 800,000 to 637,000, a drop of over 20%, with retail investors accelerating their exit. As a meme coin, TRUMP has a relatively weak value foundation, and its price fluctuations are mainly influenced by market sentiment and speculative funding. Once the unlocked tokens are sold off in large quantities, panic in the market will spread, further intensifying the selling pressure and creating a vicious cycle that leads to a sharp price drop.
Bullish Logic: Whales Accumulating at the Bottom and Potential Positive Factors
1. Whale Ambush: On-chain data shows that on April 16, two new wallets spent 5 million USDC to purchase 630,000 TRUMP at an average price of $7.93, suggesting that some funds are betting on a short-term rebound.
2. Trump's New Move: Rumors suggest that Trump will launch a real estate cryptocurrency project and register a cryptocurrency trademark, possibly leveraging favorable policies to pump prices.
3. Market Maker Support: Institutions like Wintermute provide market-making services for TRUMP or hedge selling pressure by increasing liquidity.