4/13 BTC Market Analysis

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On the daily chart, we can see that the RSI is approaching the horizontal resistance line, attempting to break through. The RSI shows divergence as the price decreases while the RSI's low points increase. The candlestick shows a small bullish candle that is relatively full, and yesterday's candlestick did not touch the 200-day moving average, resulting in a pullback. Today, it is possible to touch the 200-day moving average. In terms of trading volume, it is shrinking, corresponding to the candlestick gradually getting shorter. A reasonable volume-price relationship could align with the subsequent pullback or upward movement, with short-term pullback support around the blue line near 81400. This is the daily chart's pullback support level; if it breaks down with increased volume, the market will likely continue to decline. The upper resistance level is in the range of 87000-88500, and there is a short-term demand for upward pressure. The market may spike upwards and then undergo a pullback for consolidation. If it breaks through 88500 and closes above 88500, the market will likely start a new upward trend.
On the 4-hour level, the RSI indicator has broken through the previous level of resistance, and the support and resistance may switch as the RSI tests whether the buying support is sufficient. In terms of candlesticks, the current market has reached a balanced zone. The upper and lower parts represent long and short areas, where both sides will engage in a contest. The trading volume shows that the bullish strength is weakening, indicating a potential need for a short-term pullback.
On the 1-hour level, both RSI and trading volume have shown a decline, while the price continues to rise. Divergence behavior has occurred, indicating a weakening of bullish strength. A correction may be on the horizon, as we see RSI reaching a horizontal support level, and the candlestick also approaching the support of the 30-day moving average and the boundary support of the bullish zone. This seems to be maintaining the price at a high level, possibly waiting for the market to collectively break through, which means waiting for guidance on market sentiment. A large volume is being released in conjunction with the market's rise, and the current significant news affecting this is tariffs.
4 月 13 日,加密分析机构 Santiment 发布市场分析表示,特朗普总统再出惊人之举,宣布对"智能手机、笔记本电脑、计算机片"等多项科技产品实施关税豁免。 这项针对新实施的对等关税政策的调整令外界大感意外——especially 在之前宣佈对中国进口商品加征 125% 高关税的背景下。 美国海关与边境保护局表示,此次豁免旨在为美国企业将生产线从overseas 迁回本土争取时间。 涉及豁免的进口商品总值约 3900 亿美元,其中"超 1000 亿美元来自中国。 这被视为特朗普贸易立场的显有软化,考虑到 2024 年美国从中国进口了价值 410 亿美元的智能手机和 360 亿美元的计算机,该策略正好符合科技stock 与加密货币交易者的期待。
For tech giants like Apple and Nvidia, which heavily rely on Chinese manufacturing, this is undoubtedly a significant boon. Analysts had warned that the originally planned tariffs would lead to a surge in electronic product prices, with predictions that the price of the iPhone could 'skyrocket to $3,500.' The first round of tariff policies has already put pressure on U.S. tech stocks, with Apple alone losing over $640 billion in market value within a few days of the announcement. Trump's tariff exemptions have helped dispel the clouds over the tech industry and indirectly eased pressure on the crypto market, with Bitcoin rebounding to a weekend high of $85,900 just hours after the exemption news broke, reversing the fluctuations since April, and achieving a weekly trading volume of $84.08 billion, the highest record since 2025. Although Trump's trade policies remain complex and unpredictable, the targeted exemptions for tech products have brought short-term certainty and breathing room. Investors who continue to monitor tariff developments widely predict an increase on social media, with a clear bias in 'bull-bear discussions,' suggesting that tech stocks are likely to catch up after the market opens on Monday, following the current crypto trend. The crypto market has shown a moderate upward trend, and after the stock market opens on Monday, a synergistic effect is expected to further push up the prices of 'Bitcoin and altcoins.'
As a result of the news, BTC has risen. The exemption of tariffs on technology products here will greatly benefit companies like Apple, NVIDIA, and others, while Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla are weighted stocks in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices. This will drive the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices up when the U.S. stock market opens on Monday. An increase in the S&P 500 index will also drive BTC up, while potentially increasing the inflow of BTC spot ETFs, reversing a long period of outflow for ETFs. This will boost market confidence.

President Trump plans to announce details of semiconductor tariffs on April 14. According to Securities Times, Trump stated on April 12 that he would reveal these details next Monday.
Semiconductor tariffs will affect the Nasdaq and S&P 500. If the news is negative, it may cause a decline in U.S. stocks. Semiconductors are used in many fields, and I won't elaborate further. If the news is negative, it will have a significant impact on companies like Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla, and TSMC, leading to a drop in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices.
Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, will be giving speeches intensively from 4/14 to 4/17.

This has made the market once again filled with uncertainty. The longer the uncertainty lasts, the greater the devastation will be when panic sets in. Fortunately, the uncertainty hasn't lasted as long as before.
The order book shows that there are large contract orders placed around 81100. Spot orders are around 83600, which may be protective orders set by large funds. It is important to pay attention to whether any orders will be canceled when the price approaches.
There is a large amount of liquidity between 84000 and 83000, and a large amount of liquidity between 86000 and 87000. It may dip near 83500 and then rebound to access the liquidity above 84000.
However, looking at the 1-hour level, the probability of a market drop is moderate. The decline in trading volume indicates that there are currently fewer participants at this price, and the price has not dropped rapidly. This suggests that there is no capital selling off.
In the positions, we can see that short positions are continuously increasing, while during the market decline, the long positions have not significantly decreased. What we know now is that the large funds have not fled, which has led to an increase in short positions. If large funds wait for the right moment to place orders and ignite the market, they will attack the short liquidation positions, further pushing the market up. We cannot know the intentions of the large funds, but from the market, it is certain that their preparations are aimed at breaking through 88500 in one go.

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