Three warning signs of a U.S. economic recession! The Crypto Assets market may face a dumping wave, but there could be long-term opportunities.

As of September 2025, multiple economic indicators suggest that the United States may be nearing the brink of recession. From a weak job market and declining construction spending to a decades-low economic confidence among the public, three major warning signs are flashing simultaneously. Analysts warn that this could trigger a short-term dumping of the crypto assets market, but in the long run, assets like Bitcoin may see a new wave of demand after a shift in monetary policy.

Alert 1: The job market has significantly cooled down

In August, non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, far below the expected 75,000, and the U.S. economy has lost 142,200 jobs over the past four months, marking the largest decline since the 2020 crisis.

Structural issues: Of the 598,000 jobs created during President Trump's second term, 86% came from the healthcare and social assistance sector, while other industries have almost stagnated.

Long-term unemployment worsens: the number of people unemployed for more than 27 weeks reaches 1.9 million, accounting for 25.7%, nearing the level of a deep recession.

Warning 2: Construction spending sees the largest decline since 2008

In July 2025, construction spending fell by 2.8% year-on-year, declining in 10 of the past 11 months, marking the longest period of decline in 15 years.

Industry impact: Employment in the construction industry has fallen for three consecutive months, the longest streak since 2012.

Economic implications: A slowdown in construction investment signifies a weakening demand for housing, commercial properties, and infrastructure, creating a ripple effect on related industries such as materials, labor, and finance.

Warning Three: Public Economic Confidence Hits New Low Since 1987

The Wall Street Journal and NORC survey show that only 25% of respondents believe there is a "great chance" to improve their standard of living, while nearly 70% believe the "American Dream" is no longer real or never existed.

Political polarization: Republicans are less pessimistic than Democrats, reflecting a long-term difference in economic perceptions between the ruling party and the opposition.

Regional Differences: The Financial Times points out that states like Illinois, Washington, New Jersey, and Virginia may have already fallen into recession, while larger states such as New York, Texas, Florida, and California remain relatively stable.

Impact on the Crypto Assets Market

Financial analyst Matthew Dixon pointed out that economic recessions are usually unfavorable for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC):

Short-term impact: Growth expectations decline → Valuation shrinks → Investors turn to safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, stablecoins → Crypto Assets market liquidity decreases

Leverage pressure: borrowing costs rise, speculative activities are restricted.

Emotional effect: Even if the fundamentals have not yet deteriorated, negative expectations can trigger selling in advance.

Long-term Potential Turnaround

Although Crypto Assets may face capital outflows and price pressure in the short term, the long-term potential still exists:

Monetary policy shift: If the economic recession deepens, the central bank may cut interest rates and restart easing policies to enhance market liquidity.

Declining trust in fiat currency: Economic instability and expanding fiscal deficits may drive the attractiveness of Bitcoin as a hedging tool.

Market differentiation: Bitcoin may become the main beneficiary, while high-risk altcoins will still bear greater volatility.

Conclusion

Three major recession warnings for the U.S. economy have been raised, and in the short term, the cryptocurrency market may face selling pressure driven by risk-averse sentiment. However, historical experience shows that when monetary policy shifts to easing and trust in fiat currency declines, core assets like Bitcoin often regain investor favor. For investors, this may be a time to adjust positions and prepare for the next round of opportunities.