Wall Street stock market hits a new high, Bitcoin bull and bear debate: inflation data becomes the focus.

On Monday, driven by a strong rise in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at a historic high, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also posting slight gains. Investors are closely following the upcoming inflation data to find clues about the Fed's future interest rate policy. Meanwhile, the crypto assets market is also witnessing a fierce debate: gold advocate Peter Schiff has warned about the recent weakness of Bitcoin, while Fundstrat's Tom Lee continues to hold his bullish target of $200,000, believing that institutional funds will change the long-term trend of Bitcoin.

Wall Street Market Overview: Nasdaq Hits All-Time High, AI Stocks Lead the Way

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at a new high on Monday, rising 0.45% to 21,798.70 points, reaching an intraday high at one point. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.21% to 6,495.15 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 114 points, or 0.25%, closing at 45,514.95 points.

Market sentiment remains focused on inflation signals. Last week's weak employment data has raised expectations in the market for the Fed to potentially cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting.

Factors Driving the NASDAQ to New Heights

Tech stocks continue their rise, driven by market enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and cloud computing infrastructure. Broadcom's stock price rose more than 3%, fueled by bullish sentiment regarding demand for its AI chips. Nvidia rebounded 0.77%, while both Adobe and Cadence Design Systems rose over 2.7%. Other top gainers include AppLovin (up 11.6%) and Zscaler (up 2.7%).

In addition to leading companies, the strength of the technology sector is also spreading to other companies, indicating that market participation is expanding. Although Apple fell slightly by 0.76%, the bullish momentum of Microsoft (up 0.65%), Amazon (up 1.51%), and Palantir (up 1.95%) provided support for the overall market.

The technology sector led all S&P 500 sectors with a rise of 0.67%, while the communication services and consumer discretionary sectors also performed well. Investors are closely following Wednesday's PPI and Thursday's CPI reports, viewing them as the next catalysts for assessing inflationary pressures and potential policy shifts from the Fed.

Dow Jones Index and Individual Stock Performance

The Dow Jones index rose slightly, closing just below last week's high of 45,757.84 points. IBM (up 3.04%) was the best-performing stock in the index, followed by Walmart (up 1.76%) and UnitedHealth Group (up 1.54%). Disney and Boeing also made positive contributions to the rise.

However, defensive stocks have shown weakness. Verizon fell 2.39%, and Amgen fell 1.22%. Coca-Cola, Merck, and McDonald's also closed lower, reflecting that funds are rotating from defensive stocks and the healthcare sector to growth-oriented sectors.

The industrial and financial sectors rose slightly, while the real estate and utility sectors performed poorly, with the utility sector falling more than 1%, highlighting investors' hesitant attitude towards interest rate-sensitive stocks ahead of the macro data release.

Performance of S&P 500 Index by Sector

The S&P 500 index showed relatively balanced performance across sectors, with 8 out of 11 sectors closing higher. Take-Two Interactive led the index with a rise of 3.8%, followed by Uber (up 3.7%) and General Electric Healthcare (up 3.2%), which also performed well. ServiceNow, Adobe, and MSCI also saw significant gains.

On the downside, CVS Health fell nearly 5%, while Bath & Body Works, Green Mountain Coffee, and T-Mobile all dropped more than 3%. The real estate and utility sectors weighed on the market, highlighting investors' caution towards interest rate-sensitive stocks ahead of the release of important macroeconomic data.

Trader Outlook for This Week

All eyes are focused on the inflation data for August. The PPI data on Wednesday and the CPI data on Thursday will be crucial for the Fed's policy expectations at the meeting on September 18. Following the weak employment data released last week, traders are increasing their bets on potential rate cuts, with CME's FedWatch tool showing that the likelihood of a rate cut of 25 to 50 basis points is rising.

Peter Schiff and Tom Lee's Bitcoin Debate

As the stock market continues to reach new highs, the Bitcoin market is in the midst of an intense debate. Peter Schiff has once again criticized Bitcoin, while Fundstrat's Tom Lee insists on his astonishing price target of $200,000.

According to reports, Lee believes that the recent weakness in the market is related to the Fed's unwillingness to cut interest rates, while Schiff points out that the recent rise in gold is a warning signal for Bitcoin.

Schiff: The rise of gold is a leading indicator

In a post on platform X, gold advocate Peter Schiff emphasized that gold has risen by 10% in the past two months, reaching a new high of $3,620.

He stated: "The market is forward-looking. This is why gold rose by 10% before the upcoming rate cut." He believes that the trend of gold indicates that traders expect a more accommodative monetary policy in the future. He also added that Bitcoin's failure to follow the trend of gold has left him concerned.

Tom Lee's $200,000 prediction and its explanation

Tom Lee remains optimistic. He believes that the influx of institutional investors has given Bitcoin a new "counter-cyclical characteristic," and large players can push the price higher over time.

According to reports, Tom Lee attributes Bitcoin's recent poor performance to the Fed and continues to publicly maintain his price target of $200,000. His stance keeps him as one of Wall Street's most famous "perpetual bulls."

Market Odds and Trader Sentiment

Polymarket users seem to be skeptical about Tom Lee's timeline. As of the time of writing, market data shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 this year is only 8%.

Similarly, the market also shows that the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 by the end of 2025 is about 8%. These odds indicate a divergence of opinions among bettors, and a skeptical attitude towards these headline price targets.

longer-term performance comparison

Schiff also pointed out longer-term metrics. He noted that although Bitcoin has gained strongly against the dollar over the past four years, it has fallen 16% against gold.

He warned that when the "more air" is squeezed out of the Bitcoin bubble, its four-year return rate may appear very weak. Some analysts have also raised the point in recent comments that the four-year cycle related to the halving may be fading, and this debate is still ongoing.

The next direction of Bitcoin

Schiff further stated that the likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 is greater than the likelihood of it reaching $200,000, providing a cautious outlook. This view clearly indicates his position: he sees the rise of gold as a forward-looking signal for future policies and believes that Bitcoin's lag is not a short-term anomaly but rather a structural issue. Tom Lee's response is that the inflow of institutional funds could fundamentally change the way Bitcoin operates in the future.

Conclusion

Today's market report paints a picture of the intertwining of traditional finance and the crypto world. Against the backdrop of impending inflation data releases and the unclear prospects of Fed policies, investors are faced with two distinctly different narratives: one is the AI-driven tech stocks leading the stock market to new highs, while the other is the fierce debate between the bulls and bears of Bitcoin regarding future trends. This indicates that every signal from the macro economy not only affects the stock market but also profoundly influences the direction of crypto assets. Whether opting for the safe-haven properties of gold or betting on the institutional future of Bitcoin, the ultimate outcome will be jointly determined by fundamentals, market sentiment, and policy direction.