Why did the price of Bitcoin fall today despite whales accumulating in large numbers?

Amid strong market fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than $8,000, dropping from its recent peak — despite evidence that whales are actively accumulating. As the market reflects adjustments in the crypto space, a big question arises: why does the price go against on-chain data?

The M2 model signals weakness ahead of the Bitcoin price fall

Notably, recent observations from the M2 money supply model have attracted attention in the crypto analysis community. M2 is a broad measure of the money supply, including cash, savings deposits, time deposits, and is often regarded as an early indicator of Bitcoin's price trends.

Crypto analyst Seth pointed out that the peak of M2 occurred just before Bitcoin plummeted from 112,000 to 103,000 dollars. Historical data shows that when the growth rate of the money supply slows down, the price of Bitcoin often decreases afterward.

With this adjustment, it can be seen that macro liquidity is having a greater impact on the price of Bitcoin, compared to the quick buy-in transactions from investors.

BTC price chart | Source: X## News about tariffs makes the market cautious

In addition, geopolitical developments are also adding pressure to the market. Tensions related to U.S. trade policy have flared up again this week following news of tariff decisions being challenged in court.

Analysts say a US federal court has blocked most of the tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump. The uncertainty arising from this ruling has made traders more cautious.

Accordingly, many industry experts predict that the court's ruling could have a significant impact on international trade. This news has contributed to a strong sell-off of Bitcoin — which is often sensitive to macroeconomic factors.

In addition, many traders may be adjusting the risk levels of their investment portfolios in response to changes in trade policies, leading to capital outflows and temporary sell-offs.

Not stopping there, China is said to have reimposed a ban on owning Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, restoring long-standing restrictions on digital assets. The announcement has caused a strong reaction in the market, contributing to the price of Bitcoin plummeting from 112,000 to below 104,000 dollars.

The fear that regulations may become stricter has made traders cautious. In the past, announcements from China often caused short-term price fluctuations, primarily affecting retail investors and the Asian stock market.

Options Expiration and PCE Inflation Data

Meanwhile, recent analyses show that the main reason for the fall in Bitcoin prices is the approaching expiration of $7.7 billion in BTC options contracts on the Deribit exchange. The Put-Call ratio is nearly balanced, and the maximum payout at the $100,000 mark is causing many investors to choose to sell.

The increasing trading volume and demand for puts indicate that traders are becoming more cautious ahead of the options expiration and key economic events.

Additionally, the fall in Bitcoin's price may also be due to investors waiting for the US PCE inflation data, a metric favored by the Federal Reserve (Fed) when making interest rate decisions.

With core inflation still higher than the set target and no clear signs of interest rate cuts, many investors do not want to participate in risky assets like Bitcoin.

The hesitation over inflation uncertainties has led to a strong increase in selling pressure in the Bitcoin market. The Fed has not yet provided specific guidance on the next steps regarding interest rate policy.

Whales intensify accumulation, but Bitcoin price has not reacted yet

Meanwhile, on-chain analysts have recorded significant buying activity from Bitcoin whales. Since the end of 2024, over 240,000 BTC have been transferred into wallets holding 100 BTC or more.

In particular, this trend has accelerated in recent days, with 20,000 BTC accumulated in just 48 hours. The number of addresses holding over 100 BTC is currently also at an all-time high.

Source: XIt is surprising that the price did not react as expected. Analysts believe this is happening because the accumulation activity of whales takes time to affect the entire market.

In recent years, whale accumulation often occurs before strong price increases; however, not every large purchase transaction leads to an immediate price change. Typically, these are positioning strategies for the future, rather than for quick profits from the market.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at 103,728 dollars, falling 2.1% in the past 24 hours, with strong selling pressure after being rejected at the 108,500 dollar range and support forming around 105,000 dollars.

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