A Record Has Arrived in Bitcoin, So When Will the Big Altcoin Season Bull Start? The Analyst Revealed the Condition!

Cryptocurrency analyst Simeon Koch made striking statements on the possibility of an altcoin season by evaluating the current macroeconomic conditions. According to Koch, the Bitcoin and altcoin markets are currently under severe pressure.

The main reason for this is that interest rates on U.S. government bonds have been at their highest levels in recent years.

"Bitcoin and altcoins have a big problem right now: U.S. government bond yields are higher than they have been in a long time. Historically, this has been quite negative for risk assets like cryptocurrencies," Koch said, adding that high bond yields mean economic uncertainty, tight monetary policy and weak investment appetite.

These three factors weigh heavily on Bitcoin and altcoins, as these assets typically appreciate during periods of quantitative easing and when investors' appetite for risk-taking is high. Koch notes that high interest rates pose a threat, especially to the economic health of the United States. Moreover, despite the fact that Donald Trump is on a crypto-friendly line, this picture is putting a strain on the US economy.

In the bond market, interest rates and bond prices work inversely. If investors lose confidence in bonds and start selling, prices fall and interest rates rise. This also increases the government's borrowing costs.

Recently, the credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA1. This step accelerated the loss of confidence in the market. Although Fitch (2011) and S&P (2023) have taken similar steps before, Moody's decision was enough to shake investors' confidence.

High interest rates are making it difficult for both the government and the private sector to borrow. In 2025, approximately $9.2 trillion of the U.S. debt will mature, and this debt will need to be refinanced with new bonds. However, the current high interest rates are making this process significantly more expensive.

Koch states that the U.S. has three potential ways to lower high bond yields:

• Increasing economic optimism: Strong economic data can boost investor confidence and revive bond demand.
• The FED's interest rate cut: With the reduction of the policy interest rate, the relative attractiveness of existing bonds increases.
• The FED's return to the bond purchase program (Quantitative Easing): The large-scale purchase of bonds from the market artificially lowers interest rates.

According to Koch, all three scenarios could create a bullish wave in risky assets, especially in altcoins. This is because past periods of monetary easing have heralded bull markets for cryptocurrencies.

"There may be uncertainty in the bond markets right now. However, if this uncertainty is resolved, we have a high potential to see a sharp rally in the Bitcoin and altcoin markets. We need to be patient."