AAVE Soars 95% in 30 Days as Supply Shrinks and Whale Activity Surges

• AAVE’s price surged 95% in May 2025, driven by declining exchange supply, whale accumulation, and a DeFi TVL resurgence.
• Technical indicators show AAVE may reach $400 soon, breaking multi-month resistance levels and leading the DeFi market.

AAVE has rallied nearly 95% from its April lows, climbing to a multi-month high above $260 amid tightening exchange supply, revived DeFi activity, and renewed investor interest, especially among whales.

AAVE, the governance token of the Aave DeFi protocol, hit $260, this weekend, its highest point since early March. The rally comes after AAVE bottomed out at $113.50 on April 7. At its current valuation, the protocol’s market capitalization exceeds $4.06 billion, positioning AAVE among the top-performing DeFi tokens in Q2 2025.

Aave Price Chart. Source: CoinmarketCapData from CoinGlass analytics show that Aave balances on top centralized exchanges dropped to 4.76 millions, from 4.89 million just a few weeks ago, which has reduced exchange supply to 29.74% Such a decline often signals strong holding behaviour, a bullish indicator in crypto markets. The rally also coincides with Ethereum’s recent breakout to test the $2,400 level for the first time since February, reigniting activity across major DeFi platforms.

DeFi Dominance and TVL Resurgence Boost AAVE

AAVE’s surge is supported by a significant increase in total value locked (TVL) on the protocol. According to DeFi Llama, Aave’s TVL soared 35% in the past month, climbing to $24.4 billion. This growth makes it the largest DeFi protocol by TVL, surpassing Lido (LDO), which holds $21.6 billion.

Aave’s year-to-date fee revenue has reached $224 million in parallel, highlighting its profitability as lending activity rebounds. As a decentralized liquidity market, Aave allows users to lend assets, earn interest, or borrow against crypto collateral. Its competitive rates and permissionless structure have made it a cornerstone of Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem.

The Token’s fundamentals also signal a positive price trend and macroeconomics also favours the move which in effect could lead to a technical breakout for Aave. The token has already surpassed its 50-day EMA price and cleared its psychological resistance zone at $255, this means a lot for a strong bullish foundation

Technical Indicators Signal Further Upside Potential

Technical analysis of the daily chart reveals that AAVE broke out of a falling wedge pattern between December and April. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) now reads 79, indicating overbought conditions, while the MACD indicator has crossed the zero line, suggesting continued bullish momentum.

Aave Technical Chart. Source: SosoValue If the current rally holds, analysts expect AAVE to challenge the next key resistance at $400, a level last seen in December. That move would represent an additional 83% gain from current levels. However, a drop below the $250 support zone would invalidate the bullish thesis and signal a potential retracement.

This price breakout followed earlier bullish signals in March when Aave’s governance announced plans to overhaul its tokenomics. The move sparked renewed whale interest and contributed to a 58% intraday price jump, pushing AAVE to an interim high of $268.

Historically, AAVE’s 2024 rebound marks a strong reversal from the 2022-2023 bear cycle. Once affected by broader DeFi weakness and events such as the FTX collapse, the protocol has steadily regained investor confidence. At the peak of the 2022 crash, AAVE fell as low as $56.98 and lost over 78% of its value year-to-date.

While some price forecasts remain conservative, sentiment is gradually improving. Analyst projects AAVE could average $280 ,$285 or $300 by Q4 2025 and reach $791.80 by 2030. In contrast, if bear mode gets activated and a bearish outlook happens, it could result in a long-term decline to below $150, $165, or $200, reflecting the platform’s volatility and risk profile.

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