5 things to know about Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) is heading towards new highs in April as unexpected macro instability becomes a "tailwind" driving the bullish momentum.

Specifically, Bitcoin is on a strong bullish trend, approaching the 88,000 USD mark. However, most investors remain cautious in the face of rapid breakouts. In the context of the new trading week beginning with the shadow of the US-China trade war, the market is also preparing to receive a series of statements from officials of the Federal Reserve.

Gold prices continue to break historical records, and this time Bitcoin is starting to show a similar reaction. The weakening USD, plunging to its lowest level in 3 years, is triggering strong bullish forecasts not only for Bitcoin itself but also for commodities in general.

Although new holders have started to profit from the recent bullish trend, speculators are still waiting for a clearer signal – specifically, the "reclaiming" of the 91,000 USD mark.

The bullish trend of BTC is still in doubt

Bitcoin started the new week with a bullish of 3%, thanks to new macroeconomic fluctuations caused by escalating US-China trade tensions. The BTC/USD pair reached a peak of 87,705 USD after closing the weekly candle on April 20 – the highest level in nearly three weeks.

BTC/USD 1-day Chart | Source: TradingViewHowever, traders remain cautious, especially when price jumps occur over the weekend – a time when traditional financial institutions do not participate (TradFi), leading to low liquidity and a tendency for volatility. The Stockmoney Lizards account commented on X:

"A beautiful price breakout, but occurring under low trading volume... We still need to wait for further confirmation. Anyway, we shouldn't be too excited yet."

Analyst Honeybadger shared that he never believes in Sunday pumps – looking through, it’s just all breakouts, and he advises everyone to stay calm and wait to see how the situation will be next week.

Source: Honeybadger/X"Seeing Bitcoin break out of the downtrend is a good signal, but timing is an important factor. Sunday is not a day to celebrate a pump while the stock market is closed. If tomorrow the stock market is in the red but Bitcoin's candle remains green – that would be the time to rejoice," the IncomeSharks account also expressed a similar opinion.

BTC/USD 1-Day Chart | Source: IncomeSharks/XAnalyst Michaël van de Poppe doesn't seem very enthusiastic about either Bitcoin or gold, suggesting that prices may soon reverse. Meanwhile, analyst Scott Melker – known by the nickname "Wolf of All Streets" – commented:

"Bitcoin needs to break above the level of 88,804 USD to break the series of lower highs and lows, ending the prolonged downtrend. Is it time yet?"

The Fed's policy becomes the focal point

This week, senior officials of the Fed will consecutively make statements to clarify their views in the context of the increasingly divided U.S. economy.

A total of 8 regional Fed Chairmen will speak amid escalating tensions between the Fed and President Donald Trump. Last week, Mr. Trump even called for the firing of Fed Chair Jerome Powell – a move that has raised concerns among investors about the macroeconomic stability of the United States.

Meanwhile, Powell maintains a "hawkish" stance, clearly showing a cautious position on interest rate cuts – especially as the trade war increases inflationary pressures. Data from CME Group's FedWatch tool also reflects this: the market only expects the Fed to begin lowering interest rates in the June meeting.

The probability of the Fed's target interest rate for the FOMC meeting in June. Source: CME GroupDue to the lack of new economic data to be released, market attention continues to focus on trade tensions and the level of volatility it brings. Right at the beginning of the week, China issued a warning about the US's efforts to isolate the country – a move that caused US stock futures to drop sharply while gold prices continued to break records.

The surprising thing is that this time, Bitcoin is no longer following the bearish trend of stocks but instead is moving in tandem with the bullish trend of gold. The account The Kobeissi Letter shares:

"Gold has just reached its 55th historical peak in the past 12 months, and Bitcoin has officially entered the game, surpassing the 87,000 USD mark... For the first time in many years, gold and Bitcoin are sending a common message: a weaker USD and the uncertainty ahead are unavoidable."

Gold nears the record mark of 3,400 USD due to concerns over trade war

Gold is the most prominent bullish asset of 2025. In the context of instability due to trade wars and long-term impacts on inflation as well as global assets, the XAU/USD pair has risen nearly 30% since the beginning of the year. Currently, the price of gold is fluctuating around 3,424 USD/ounce – a level never recorded before.

Although some experts warn about the possibility of a "blow-off top" (blow-off top), the bullish trend has yet to show any signs of slowing down.

XAU/USD 1 Day Chart | Source: TradingViewThe Kobeissi Letter notes that Mr. Trump's latest post on social media – a "list of non-tariff fraud" – has sparked a frenzied rally in gold:

"President Trump's 'non-tariff fraud list' may be the most positive factor for gold this year... Gold knows what is about to happen."

Kobeissi also pointed out that since the market crash during COVID-19 in March 2020, gold has outperformed the S&P 500. Meanwhile, Bitcoin seems to be entering a new phase as the BTC/USD pair has finally begun to respond like gold to macroeconomic fluctuations – something that had not been seen during the many months of downtrend.

As the downtrend is gradually left behind, the market begins to compare with historical precedents: in the past, Bitcoin's breakout phases often occurred about three months after gold.

"As soon as the futures market opened, it didn't take long for both BTC and gold to accelerate simultaneously, while the stock market plummeted," trader Daan Crypto Trades commented.

"An interesting development, and it is further reinforcing the relative strength that Bitcoin has shown over the past few weeks."

BTC/USD 1 day chart compared to XAU/USD | Source: TradingView## The strength of the USD has fallen to its lowest level in 3 years

Adding to the overall picture of the market is the new weakening trend of the US dollar – something that hedge fund founder Andreas Steno Larsen describes as an "initial positive signal for Bitcoin."

"We haven't seen anything yet, if this trend continues ( and if Powell is dismissed )," he wrote on X along with a chart comparing the performance of Bitcoin and USD.

Bitcoin yield chart vs. USD | Source: Andreas Steno/XThe USD Strength Index (DXY), used to measure the strength of the greenback against a basket of currencies of America's major trading partners, continued to decrease by another 1.3% as of April 21. Since the beginning of the year, DXY has dropped nearly 10%, currently reaching its lowest level since March 2022.

This development is being considered a potential "powder keg" for a major bull run of both Bitcoin and commodities.

Rock Bottom Entries analysis account comments:

"The USD is falling into a state of 'no buyers', facing the risk of breaking a 14-year bullish trend since 2011... Forget about 2016 and 2020 – this could be the beginning of a super commodity cycle like the 2000s."

DXY Chart 1 Month | Source: TradingViewHistorical data shows that Bitcoin tends to experience strong bullish trends when DXY weakens rapidly. However, this inverse correlation has not been clear recently. Analyst Joe Dean commented:

"Contrary to what you often hear on social media, Bitcoin has had a tendency to move in the same direction as DXY over the past few years… DXY has peaked and then plunged, and it is highly likely to return to the average level. BTC will probably follow that trend closely."

DXY vs BTC/USD Chart | Source: Joe Dean/X## New Bitcoin investors have started to profit

The short-term price movements of BTC are creating a clear distinction among various groups of investors. According to a recent report from the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, even when it only reached the milestone of 87,000 USD, the most recent group of buyers has already made an average profit of 3.7%.

"This is a bullish signal in the short term, indicating a return of confidence and a significant reduction in panic risk among new investors entering the market," the account Crazzyblockk wrote in the "Quicktake" blog of CryptoQuant.

This development is contrary to the group of short-term holders (STH) – those who have held BTC for a maximum of 6 months – currently having an average cost basis of up to 91,000 USD. The cost basis of the STH group often plays a role in support or resistance over the long term, as this speculative group of traders tends to react strongly to price fluctuations.

CryptoQuant warns further:

"Until BTC closes above the 91,000 USD threshold, the STH group is still facing losses. This could maintain latent selling pressure, especially if the bullish momentum weakens – highlighting the importance of a clear breakout above the STH cost basis to negate this barrier."

Profit of STH group of Bitcoin | Source: CryptoQuantYou can check the price of Bitcoin here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Investors should do thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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