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央广网北京4月7日消息（记者吕红桥）据中央广播电视总台经济之声《环球新财讯》报道，当前，全国生猪出栏均价跌破每斤5元。有的地方甚至跌破4元，是近二十年的低点。养殖场户正在经历近几轮猪周期中“最艰难的一段时间”。从历史数据看，生猪市场有“大涨必大跌，大跌必大涨”的说法，跌得越厉害，后面涨得越凶。那么，现在入场养猪等猪价反弹能稳赚不赔吗？有多少人正准备入场？

Many people may still remember that during the transition of the pig cycle from 2018 to 2019, over a year, the price of live pigs rose from less than 5 yuan per jin to nearly 20 yuan per jin. Raising one pig went from losing hundreds of yuan to making nearly 3,000 yuan profit. At that time, some even crossed over into pig farming and earned a lot of money. Summarizing these historical data, some concluded — “Big rise must be followed by big fall, big fall must be followed by big rise.” This round of pig cycle has seen such a significant drop in pig prices, so the mentality of farmers is worth close attention. Are there any farmers preparing to buy at the bottom, waiting for a market reversal?

目前来看，大型养殖集团基本都在压减生猪产能，有的企业去年以来能繁母猪存栏量降幅超过10%。不过，近年来新兴的中小养殖企业目前却在逆势扩产，豪赌猪周期反转的意图比较明显。这类企业主打代养模式，也就是由散户在自家猪舍替这些公司养猪。吉林一名做代养的散户表示，目前当地代养公司不光没有压减产能，反而还在扩产。“现在哪个代养公司也不说压缩产能的事，还有很多公司到我们这来‘撬’养殖户。前段时间还有一个哈尔滨的代养公司来我们这里，问我们这里的几家养殖户去不去他那，说条件怎么怎么优惠。”这名代养散户说。

However, the current situation shows that large-scale breeding groups are basically reducing pig production capacity, with some companies seeing a decline of over 10% in breeding sows since last year. Meanwhile, emerging small and medium-sized breeding enterprises have been expanding against the trend, with a clear intention to gamble on a pig cycle reversal. These companies mainly operate on a contract farming model, where individual farmers raise pigs on behalf of these companies. A contract farmer in Jilin said that currently, local contract farming companies are not only not reducing capacity but are actually expanding. “No contract farming company is talking about cutting capacity now, and many companies come to us to ‘poach’ farmers. Not long ago, a contract farming company from Harbin came to us, asking if some of our farmers would go to them, offering better conditions,” said the contract farmer.

不过代养散户认为，这些企业布局得太早。如果猪周期及时反转，当然能大赚一把。但如果猪价持续低迷，他们的资金链很容易断裂。“都是拿钱养猪，他也亏不起，尤其是没有实力的。我们这公司是融资的，比如猪苗这一块，有一个老板投钱，有一个饲料厂给他提供饲料，他们分成，搭伙把这个公司支撑到现在。如果猪价还这么下降，你会往看不着希望的公司投钱吗？你不也得撤出了吗？”这名代养散户表示。

However, contract farmers believe that these enterprises have entered the market too early. If the pig cycle reverses in time, they can make a big profit. But if pig prices remain low, their capital chains could easily break. “They are raising pigs with borrowed money, and they can’t afford to lose. Especially those without strength. Our company is financed; for example, in piglets, there’s an investor putting in money, and a feed factory providing feed. They share the profits, supporting the company until now. If pig prices keep falling, would you invest in a company with no hope? You’d probably withdraw too,” said the contract farmer.

与这些生猪代养企业相比，当前养殖散户的心态反而更加理性。山西一名养殖户告诉记者，由于猪价太低，当地很多散户已经弃养一段时间。但目前为止，准备抄底入场的人寥寥无几。

Compared to these pig contract farming enterprises, individual farmers are currently more rational. A farmer in Shanxi told reporters that due to the very low pig prices, many local farmers have abandoned pig farming for some time. But so far, very few are preparing to buy at the bottom and enter the market.

这名养殖户表示：“就拿我们村来说，以前最起码还有十一二家养殖户，现在一多半都不养了。观望的人很多，现在的人都理性了。我们在一起商量时都说，看着现在是低谷，但今年的价格虽然不能说没有高点，但这个高点也不会太理想。”

The farmer said, “Take our village as an example, there used to be at least eleven or twelve farmers, now more than half have stopped. Many are just watching. People are more rational now. When we discuss, we say that although we are in a low point now, the prices this year, while not necessarily high, won’t be too ideal either.”

对于猪价“大涨必大跌，大跌必大涨”的说法，中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所研究员朱增勇认为，从历史数据或许能得出这样的结论，但这句话在这轮猪周期未必适用。一方面是由于肉类消费日趋多元和健康饮食理念深入人心，猪肉消费需求在下降。

Regarding the saying “Big rise must be followed by big fall, big fall must be followed by big rise,” Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that this conclusion might be drawn from historical data, but it may not apply to this pig cycle. One reason is that meat consumption is becoming more diverse and health-conscious eating habits are gaining popularity, leading to a decline in pork demand.

朱增勇介绍：“居民家庭人均猪肉消费量连续两年下降，像2024年和2025年，根据国家统计局的数据，猪肉的家庭人均消费量分别是28.1公斤和26.6公斤，同比分别下降了7.8%和5.4%。同时当前也是猪肉消费的淡季，猪肉在整个肉类消费中的比重由62%下降至2025年的58%，禽肉、牛羊肉等替代了一部分猪肉的消费。”

Zhu Zengyong explained: “Per capita pork consumption in households has decreased for two consecutive years. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2024 and 2025, the per capita household pork consumption will be 28.1 kg and 26.6 kg respectively, down 7.8% and 5.4% year-on-year. Currently, it is also the off-season for pork consumption, and pork’s share in total meat consumption is expected to decrease from 62% to 58% by 2025, with poultry, beef, and mutton replacing some pork consumption.”

另一方面，虽然目前全国能繁母猪存栏量在下降，但在养殖效率提升的背景下，生猪产能仍然相对稳定。所以现在入场养猪等待猪价反弹，并不能稳赚不赔。

On the other hand, although the nationwide breeding sow inventory is decreasing, under the background of improved breeding efficiency, pig production capacity remains relatively stable. Therefore, entering pig farming now and waiting for a price rebound does not guarantee profits.

朱增勇表示：“规模化水平的提升和产业集中度的提升，带动了整个养殖效率每年大概有3%的提升。我们当前整个生猪养殖的稳定性、生产效率跟前几轮周期相比有快速提升，所以在稳定性提升的前提之下，后面的周期应该呈现弱周期的特征，这就意味着之前周期的大涨大跌不会再出现。”

Zhu Zengyong said: “The level of scale and industry concentration has increased, driving an approximately 3% annual improvement in overall breeding efficiency. Currently, the stability and productivity of pig farming have improved rapidly compared to previous cycles. Under the premise of increased stability, future cycles are likely to show weaker fluctuations, meaning the large rises and falls seen in previous cycles are unlikely to recur.”