Chứng khoán CITIC: Chính sách hỗ trợ giá điện sớm chạm đáy, định giá ngành bắt đầu mở rộng trở lại

中信证券研报认为，辽宁省推出核电机制电价政策，
stabilizing the guarantee effect of nuclear power returns in the province is obvious.
后续其他沿海核电省份或将陆续跟进；
Through the visible hand of policy, the trend of stabilizing returns is expected to spread to other regions and other power sources,
政府态度正在从降发电侧电价转为稳定发电侧合理回报；
CITIC Securities estimates that although the market supply and demand clearing point may be around 2028,
政策保障料将助力行业电价底部提前出现，
which will help improve the basic expectations of the power industry and expand overall valuations.

全文如下

公用环保｜政策助电价早触底，行业估值重拾扩张

辽宁省推出核电机制电价政策，
stabilizing the guarantee effect of nuclear power returns in the province is obvious,
后续其他沿海核电省份或将陆续跟进；
Through the visible hand of policy, the trend of stabilizing returns is expected to spread to other regions and other power sources,
政府态度正在从降发电侧电价转为稳定发电侧合理回报；
我们测算虽然市场供需出清时点或在2028年左右，但政策保障料将助力行业电价底部提前出现，
which will help improve the basic expectations of the power industry and expand overall valuations.

▍辽宁核电机制电价出台，稳回报效果显著。

根据辽宁省发改委，2026年，
In 2026, Liaoning Province will adopt a price difference settlement mechanism for nuclear power outside the market,
差价结算费用暂纳入系统运行费用，由全体工商业用户进行分摊，
The price difference settlement fee will be temporarily included in the system operating costs and shared by all industrial and commercial users,
机制电价为0.3798元/千瓦时，
The mechanism price is 0.3798 yuan/kWh,
约70%电量按机制电价结算，其余按照市场电价结算。
Approximately 70% of the electricity will be settled at the mechanism price, and the rest at the market price.
2026年，我们预计红沿河电站平均上网电价为0.34元/千瓦时，
In 2026, we expect the average grid-connected electricity price of the Hongyanhe Power Station to be 0.34 yuan/kWh,
高于0.31元/千瓦时的年度集中竞价均价但低于0.38元/千瓦时的批复电价。
which is higher than the annual centralized bidding average of 0.31 yuan/kWh but lower than the approved price of 0.38 yuan/kWh.
机制电价政策推出后，2026年，
After the introduction of the mechanism price policy, in 2026,
我们预计红沿河电站的股东回报在12%附近，
we expect the shareholder return of the Hongyanhe Power Station to be around 12%,
稳回报的政策保障效果较为明显。
the effect of the policy guarantee for stable returns is quite obvious.

▍预计电力市场再平衡时点在2028年附近出现。

我们测算，2026-2027年，
We estimate that from 2026 to 2027,
新增装机规模虽有所回落但仍居高位，
the new installed capacity will decline but remain at a high level,
等效装机容量增速仍将维持在8.2%和6.5%的较快增速，
the growth rate of equivalent installed capacity will still maintain a rapid growth of 8.2% and 6.5%,
预计分别快于同期用电量增速2.7/1.3个百分点。
which is expected to be faster than the growth rate of electricity consumption by 2.7/1.3 percentage points.
2028年，我们预计等效装机同比增速将回落至5.6%，
In 2028, we expect the year-on-year growth rate of equivalent installed capacity to drop to 5.6%,
基本接近同期5.0%的用电量增速预测，
which is basically close to the forecast of 5.0% growth in electricity consumption during the same period,
在经历持续过剩后电力市场届时将迎来再平衡。
after a period of continuous oversupply, the power market will welcome a rebalancing.

▍政策保障意愿增强，发电侧电价底或提前到来。

市场外的政策有形之手正发挥作用，
The visible hand of policy outside the market is playing a role,
类似辽宁省核电机制电价的市场之外政策保障措施预计在其他地区和其他电源将不断出台，
similar policies outside the market for nuclear power pricing in Liaoning Province are expected to be continuously introduced in other regions and other power sources,
政策保障助行业电价底提前出现，
policy guarantees will help the industry price floor to appear earlier,
早于纯依赖供需格局自然演化而形成的电价底时点。
earlier than the price floor formed by purely relying on the natural evolution of supply and demand patterns.
此外，通过政策保障电源合理回报，
In addition, ensuring reasonable returns for power sources through policy guarantees,
也意味着政府态度正在从降发电侧电价转为稳定发电侧合理回报，
also means that the government’s attitude is shifting from lowering electricity prices on the generation side to stabilizing reasonable returns on the generation side,
达到促进能源转型推进和保障能源安全的目的。
to promote energy transition and ensure energy security.

▍风险因素：

政策保障力度不及预期，
The strength of policy guarantees is less than expected,
用电需求不及预期，
electricity demand is less than expected,
电价大幅下降，
electricity prices decline significantly,
煤价大幅上升，
coal prices rise significantly,
风光造价大幅上行，
the cost of wind and solar energy rises significantly,
来水大幅偏枯，
water inflow is significantly reduced,
电力市场改革推进缓慢等。
the slow progress of power market reforms, etc.

▍投资策略：

为达到促进能源转型推进和保障能源安全的目的，
To achieve the goal of promoting energy transition and ensuring energy security,
实施政策有形之手的稳电价政策，
implementing stable electricity price policies through the visible hand of policy,
我们预计后续将在其他区域和其他电源间陆续推出。
we expect that similar policies will be gradually introduced in other regions and other power sources.
电力行业近年单方面受供需宽松而承压的情况料将迎来改变，
The situation of the power industry being under pressure due to a loose supply and demand in recent years is expected to change,
稳回报的政策兜底预期不断强化，
the expectations of stable return policies are continuously strengthened,
有助于电力行业整体估值扩张，
which will help the overall valuation expansion of the power industry,
提升配置吸引力。
enhancing allocation attractiveness.

（文章来源：证券时报）