Chiến tranh Iran làm gián đoạn nguồn cung LNG của Qatar, triển vọng thị trường toàn cầu và dự báo nhu cầu châu Á đều chịu áp lực

Iran’s war is disrupting the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) outlook. Due to soaring prices, damage to export infrastructure in major supplier Qatar, and potential delays in new supply, the market is beginning to question the demand from price-sensitive Asian buyers that was previously anticipated.

Before the outbreak of the war, analysts expected global LNG supply could increase by as much as 10% this year, reaching 460 million to 484 million tons, with demand also projected to grow in tandem.

However, now that Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global LNG transport, combined with damage to Qatar’s liquefaction facilities—resulting in a loss of 12.8 million tons of LNG supply annually over the next three to five years—the likes of S&P Global, ICIS, Kpler, and Rystad Energy have downgraded their global supply forecasts by as much as 35 million tons.

This reduction is equivalent to about 500 LNG ships, enough to meet more than half of Japan’s annual import volume or to satisfy Bangladesh’s import needs for five years.

S&P Global Energy analyst Lucien Mulberg stated, “We expect this gas price crisis will prompt some countries to reconsider whether to increase gas demand as we previously forecasted, thus LNG demand growth will be below pre-war predictions.”

S&P Global Energy expects Qatar and the UAE’s export volume to decrease by 33 million tons this year; additionally, due to delays anticipated in Qatar’s North Field expansion project and the Ruwais LNG project being built by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the agency further downgraded its annual supply forecasts for 2027 to 2029, with an expected reduction of 19 million tons per year.

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