Khai thác Bitcoin vượt mốc 20 triệu: Cuộc biến động cung cầu còn lại 1 triệu chiếc

Bitcoin network has recently completed the mining of the 20,000,000th BTC, marking the formal entry of its supply curve into the final stage of stock game. The total supply cap is 21,000,000 coins, and the remaining amount to be mined is less than 1 million coins. This milestone is not only a mechanical milestone of computing power and code but also signifies that the core assumption of the scarcity narrative—from “incremental dilution” to “stock solidification”—is beginning to transition from theoretical deduction to real-world constraints.

Discussions about scarcity in the market have previously centered around halving events, while the uniqueness of the current milestone lies in the fact that the remaining supply can no longer support more complete halving cycles, and the elasticity of the supply side is tending towards zero.

How the Hard Constraints of the Supply Curve Reshape Pricing Logic

The supply mechanism of Bitcoin is determined by its fixed issuance rate and halving cycle in the code. Against the backdrop of over 20 million coins mined, the marginal impact of new supply on total circulation has fallen to a historical low. The daily new output of miners is currently about 450 coins, significantly reducing its ability to directly suppress market prices compared to the thousands of coins produced daily in the early days. From the supply-demand model perspective, when new supply approaches zero, the behavior structure of stockholders will become the main determining factor of price. The number of addresses of long-term holders and the duration of holdings are beginning to replace computing power costs or miner selling pressure, becoming more core pricing variables. This shift in mechanism means that scarcity is no longer guaranteed solely by code but increasingly depends on the market’s consensus strength on “non-renewable assets.”

What is the Cost of the Scarcity Narrative

The high-intensity propagation of the scarcity narrative has brought significant structural costs. First, liquidity depth has begun to concentrate in a few high-net-worth addresses and institutional custody wallets, and the on-chain activity and transaction frequency of the Bitcoin network have shown a downward trend over the past several halving cycles. When assets are widely perceived as “stores of value” rather than “mediums of exchange,” their network effects and use cases may face contraction. Secondly, the hardening of the supply side puts long-term adjustment pressure on the income structure of miners. As block rewards continue to decline, miners must rely on transaction fee income to maintain operations, while the volatility and uncertainty of transaction fee income are far greater than fixed block rewards. If fee growth cannot cover computing power costs, the clearing of computing power may trigger a phase contraction of network security budgets, creating tension between narrative and reality.

What It Means for the Landscape of Crypto Assets

The strengthening of Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative is reshaping the valuation framework of the entire category of crypto assets. In the perception of mainstream institutions and traditional finance, Bitcoin’s positioning as “digital gold” is further solidified due to the end of supply, accelerating its differentiation in risk attributes from other crypto assets. Platforms like Ethereum anchor their value more in application ecosystems and on-chain activities, while Bitcoin’s value logic increasingly tends toward pure scarcity assets. This differentiation prompts the market to form a clearer asset hierarchy: Bitcoin becomes a tool for macro hedging and long-term allocation, while other crypto assets carry more risk premiums and growth narratives. From the market structure perspective, Bitcoin’s market capitalization share often shows a phase rebound around the supply end node, reflecting the preference of funds for the hardest assets in uncertain environments.

How Might the Future Evolve

Looking ahead to the next 5 to 10 years, the narrative focus of Bitcoin will undergo structural shifts. In the first phase, the market will closely monitor the mining pace of the remaining 1 million BTC. According to the current computing power and difficulty adjustment mechanisms, the mining period for the last 1 million coins may last until around 2035, but the actual time may vary due to factors like computing power growth and slight adjustments in halving time. In the second phase, market focus will shift from the “issuance side” to the “holding side” and “trading side.” The continuous expansion of compliant channels such as spot ETFs will further absorb circulating supply, exacerbating the tightening of actual tradable volume. In the third phase, scarcity will evolve from “quantity scarcity” to “liquidity scarcity.” At that time, the price volatility characteristics may fundamentally change: in a low liquidity environment, external macro liquidity (such as the US dollar index and real interest rates) will have a marginal impact on Bitcoin prices that exceeds that of internal industry events.

Potential Risks and Warnings

The scarcity narrative is not without reverse scenarios. The most prominent risk comes from the potential threat of quantum computing to the SHA-256 algorithm. Although there is currently no actual attack capability, the long-term uncertainty of technological evolution may undermine the trust foundation at the code level. Secondly, asymmetric changes in the regulatory environment may limit Bitcoin’s liquidity channels as a store of value tool, such as restrictions on self-custody wallets or compliance reviews of on-chain transactions. Furthermore, the scarcity narrative itself carries the risk of self-fulfilling bubbles. If the macro economy enters a long-term deflationary or extremely tight liquidity environment, Bitcoin’s attributes as a risk asset may regain dominance, and the logic of scarcity will be suppressed by the logic of macro liquidity. Finally, during the mining process of the remaining 1 million, if computing power becomes overly centralized or miner behaviors exhibit abnormal selling, it may also lead to price performance that contradicts the scarcity narrative in the short term.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s breakthrough of 20,000,000 coins mined marks a critical transition from “fast-growing emerging asset” to “stock solidified mature asset.” The scarcity narrative is moving from theoretical consensus to real-world constraints, and the hard boundaries on the supply side are gradually shifting pricing power from miners to long-term holders and institutional allocation demands. This process reinforces Bitcoin’s layered positioning in the crypto asset system and brings structural challenges to liquidity structure and network security budgets. The core observation point of the future market will no longer be “how much more can be mined,” but rather “how long are people willing to hold” and “whether value consensus can be maintained in a low liquidity environment.” For the crypto industry, Bitcoin is completing a paradigm shift from narrative-driven to structure-driven.

FAQ

Q: How long is it expected to take to mine the remaining 1 million Bitcoins?

Based on the current halving cycle and computing power growth trends, the mining period for the last 1 million Bitcoins is estimated to be about 10 to 12 years, but the actual time may fluctuate due to changes in computing power, difficulty adjustments, and halving time windows.

Q: Does the end of Bitcoin’s supply mean prices will only rise and not fall?

Not necessarily. Scarcity is one of the foundations of long-term value, but medium to short-term prices are still influenced by a multitude of factors including macroeconomic liquidity, regulatory policies, market sentiment, and risk preference.

Q: Can miners still be profitable during the supply end phase?

The income structure of miners will rely more on transaction fees from on-chain transactions. If Bitcoin network use cases expand and trading activity increases, transaction fee income may compensate for the gap caused by declining block rewards; conversely, pressure on computing power clearing will increase.

Q: What is the main impact of the scarcity narrative on ordinary investors?

The scarcity narrative strengthens Bitcoin’s value foundation as a long-term allocation asset, but it also means further tightening of future tradable liquidity, and ordinary investors may face higher price impact costs and wider spreads when buying and selling.