Macroeconomic stability illusion was thoroughly shattered this week. When a series of events unfolded before us, we realized a harsh reality: when macro risks meet on-chain weak signals, the rally of crypto assets becomes extremely fragile.

Let's first look at what happened this week. CPI data underperformed → market sentiment shifted → liquidity flooded into exchanges. Short positions exceeding $500 million were wiped out, and Bitcoin surged to around $95,000 at one point, marking the most intense short squeeze since October last year. It sounds exciting, but a closer look at the data reveals issues.

This rally appears vigorous on the surface, but the driving force is highly questionable — it’s not primarily driven by spot buying, but by derivatives market manipulation. Corporate investors and long-term holders remain silent, with little participation. Instead, on-chain data shows that some new "whales" are already caught in a loss position. This signal is familiar; such situations often occur during squeeze phases later on.

To put it simply, the current upward movement is not solid. The next major uncertainty is looming — the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling on January 14, which could cause volatility for the dollar and risk assets. Concurrently, the US crypto regulatory frameworks (GENIUS Act and )CLARITY Act are gradually institutionalizing, which is positive for institutional access.

My judgment: Bitcoin’s upward momentum is undergoing a test, ETF capital provides some support at the bottom, but speculative leverage remains the main driver. The real pressure point lies in short-term volatility. Market perception must stay sharp, stance should remain neutral, and risk control is always more valuable than unwarranted optimism.