Polymarket's recent data shows interesting divergence. After analyzing 295,000 historical markets on the platform, we found that 63.16% of contracts have zero 24-hour trading volume, with over 60% of short-term markets essentially becoming decorative.

The liquidity problem is indeed severe. In comparison, sports markets have average trading volumes 30 times higher than crypto markets, with capital not even in the same magnitude. Combined with extreme head effects—just 505 super contracts monopolize 47% of the platform's total trading volume, making it difficult for retail traders to get a piece.

However, long-term prediction markets are different. This segment's average liquidity is 45 times higher than single-day markets, with US political contracts most active, averaging $28.17 million in daily trading volume and becoming the main capital flow destination. Interestingly, the geopolitics sector is rising rapidly, with active proportion reaching 29.7%, becoming the fastest-growing direction.

Overall, Polymarket is taking two different paths: one side is a high-frequency sports betting venue, the other side is a macro political hedging tool.