Quan điểm mới nhất của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang: Thuế quan có thực sự kiềm chế lạm phát không?

【Coin Circle】I recently came across an interesting analysis report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Their conclusion is quite surprising—tariffs won’t push up prices. It sounds contradictory, but the logic is actually quite clear: the uncertainty brought by tariffs will discourage consumers and businesses, everyone becomes cautious, market demand declines, and this actually suppresses inflationary pressure.

But what does this mean? The cost of economic growth could be much higher. Insufficient demand is a signal of economic slowdown, and the impact on asset markets follows accordingly. This logic of “trading recession for low inflation” has a direct impact on cryptocurrency asset valuations—weakened expectations for monetary easing naturally reduce the attractiveness of risk assets.

It’s worth noting the policy trade-off behind this: stabilize prices or stabilize growth? The Federal Reserve’s choice on this question will reshape the logic of the entire asset allocation landscape.