Công nghệ cổ phiếu có thể phục hồi để đạt mức cao mới không? Tại sao 7,500 không nằm ngoài tầm với của S&P 500 vào năm 2026

The S&P 500 sitting around 6,840 marks a pivotal moment. After two years of massive gains, investors everywhere are asking the same question: will tech stocks continue driving the index higher, or has the rally finally exhausted itself?

The answer? It depends on whether AI becomes real economic value or remains overhyped narrative.

Let’s break down what needs to happen for the S&P 500 to reach 7,500—a move that would require roughly 10% upside from current levels. That sounds modest, but in a market already up significantly, it’s worth examining whether such gains are realistic or dangerously optimistic.

Why This Target Isn’t Crazy (And Why Major Banks Are Seriously Discussing It)

Major institutions aren’t throwing around the 7,500 number casually. J.P. Morgan and UBS have both mentioned it as a credible scenario, not a fantasy. Here’s why:

First, the market has already proven skeptics wrong. At 2025’s start, strategists from Morgan Stanley and Edward Jones predicted a slower year after 2023–2024’s impressive returns. The logic seemed sound: after such a runup, gravity should kick in. Instead, the S&P 500 kept grinding higher, supported by stronger-than-expected earnings, declining inflation, and a Federal Reserve shifting from hawkish to dovish.

Second, the productivity boom might actually be arriving. For years, investors waited for the next tech breakthrough to meaningfully boost output while cutting costs. AI looks different. Companies aren’t just talking about it anymore—they’re implementing automated coding, AI-powered customer service, supply chain optimization, and leaner operations. If these translate to real margin expansion, current valuations could prove justified.

Third, the Fed is cooperating. Lower interest rates make equities more attractive than bonds. They also make borrowing cheaper for tech companies betting billions on AI infrastructure. This is the environment where growth stocks tend to perform best.

The AI Infrastructure Story: This Time, Supply Is Leading Demand

Here’s what makes 2026 unique: we’re not waiting for consumers to adopt a new product like the iPhone. Instead, we’re watching a massive buildout of supply-side infrastructure that will create future demand.

Consider the scale:

• Hyperscale data centers under construction across continents
• Unprecedented semiconductor demand stretching chip supply chains
• Long-term power agreements for AI-intensive facilities
• Fiber and broadband infrastructure upgrades
• New cloud availability zones expanding globally

The Stargate Project announcement crystallized this trend: $500 billion in AI infrastructure investment planned for the United States over four years. That’s not theoretical. Concrete is being poured, fiberoptic cable is being laid, and power grids are being reinforced right now.

This matters because once the infrastructure is in place and AI monetization gains traction, the earnings surprise could be substantial. Will tech stocks recover to new highs? If this infrastructure investment generates the expected returns, yes.

The Market Is a Tech Concentration Play (For Better or Worse)

Let’s be honest: the S&P 500 is increasingly a mega-cap tech index wearing a 500-stock costume. The top ten stocks drive index returns. Nvidia alone represents over 7% of the index.

This concentration is both a strength and vulnerability:

The strength: These companies earned their dominance. Superior returns on invested capital, network effects, global infrastructure, and relentless innovation capacity separate leaders from everyone else. The biggest tech firms have compounded value reliably over a decade.

The vulnerability: On January 27, 2025, Nvidia lost $600 billion in market cap in a single day—the largest drop in U.S. history for any company. When one stock represents 7% of the index, its stumbles matter for everyone.

For the S&P 500 to reach 7,500, mega-cap tech must continue performing. Any meaningful slowdown in mega-cap earnings would derail the target. This is why concentration matters so much to any 2026 forecast.

Valuations: High, But Not Insane (And Context Is Everything)

The S&P 500 trades at forward price-to-earnings ratios in the low-to-mid 20s. That looks elevated compared to the long-term average, and yes, it leaves less room for error. But here’s the context investors often miss:

In the mid-1990s, multiples also rose, and people screamed “bubble!” What actually happened? Companies became materially more profitable as digital technologies reshaped cost structures. The high multiples weren’t irrational—they reflected structural economic change.

Today’s situation parallels that dynamic. If AI genuinely drives a new productivity regime—where automation, cloud-scale efficiencies, and real cost compression become measurable—then earnings could grow faster than historical models assume. What looks expensive today might look fair in 2027 or 2028.

Also remember: valuations are relative. Investors pay more for future earnings when alternative assets offer weaker returns. Tech stocks benefit disproportionately from lower discount rates because their cash flows stretch far into the future. This dynamic remains in play as long as rates stay manageable.

The key risk: if earnings disappoint, inflation resurges, or the Fed reverses course, these elevated multiples compress quickly. But if earnings growth continues and AI margins start materially expanding, current valuations aren’t bubble territory.

Three Scenarios for Tech Stocks in 2026

The Bull Case: 7,500 Is Achievable

AI monetization accelerates across cloud services, enterprise automation, and advertising. Productivity gains translate into margin expansion. The Fed’s easing cycle continues, making tech borrowing cheaper and equities more attractive than bonds. Consumer spending remains resilient. Technical momentum from systematic strategies amplifies gains. Result: tech stocks recover strongly, pulling the index past 7,500.

The Bear Case: Tech Stocks Stall

AI infrastructure investment slows faster than expected as ROI questions mount and energy costs rise. Mega-cap earnings disappoint, revealing that AI hype outpaced reality. Inflation flares back up, forcing the Fed to slow or reverse rate cuts (note: core PCE sits at 2.8%, 0.8 percentage points above target). Recession risks emerge from slowing wage growth and job creation. Geopolitical shocks create volatility. Market concentration becomes fragility as one mega-cap stumble triggers broad selling. Result: modest returns (5–8%), stalling before 7,500.

The Base Case: Muddy Middle

Modest earnings growth, stable but elevated valuations, higher volatility than 2024, and gradual AI monetization. Tech stocks recover modestly but not dramatically. The index approaches 7,400 but doesn’t convincingly break through 7,500. This scenario accounts for most likely outcomes.

What Investors Should Actually Do

Stop obsessing over whether the index hits 7,500 and focus on portfolio structure:

• Tech Exposure: Don’t automatically cut tech holdings, but genuinely assess your concentration. Overweight isn’t automatically over-risky, but you need to understand your drawdown tolerance. Many investors are unknowingly overexposed.

• Diversification: Small and mid-cap stocks historically outperform during Fed easing cycles and trade at significant valuation discounts. International markets offer lower multiples and meaningful diversification benefits.

• Risk Management: Volatility will likely stay elevated. Implement disciplined rebalancing, consider hedging strategies, and maintain tactical cash allocation rather than going all-in on the momentum trade.

The Bottom Line: 7,500 Is Possible, Not Probable

Will tech stocks recover and drive the S&P 500 higher in 2026? Possibly, but it requires several conditions aligning: AI monetization must accelerate, earnings must grow, rates must stay accommodative, and recession risks must remain manageable.

The ceiling is higher than pessimists admit. The floor is lower than bulls assume. The outcome pivots on whether AI becomes a genuine economic force rather than an expensive infrastructure bet that never pays off.

One certainty: 2026 won’t be boring. It will be defined by the tension between technology’s transformative potential and the real constraints of valuations, earnings, and macroeconomics. 7,500 isn’t guaranteed. It’s a credible target if conditions hold. For investors positioning portfolios today, that ambiguity is precisely why diversification, risk management, and disciplined rebalancing matter more than ever.