|MVRV Z-index indicator shows a firm 0 axis, or follow the example of the slow bull after the second bottom in 2016| MVRV Z-Score covers three models to present key indicators of the Bitcoin market, whether the Bitcoin price is extremely overvalued or relatively undervalued relative to its "fair value". MVRV Z-Score combines three important elements: 1. Market Value (Blue Line): represents the current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation, which is equivalent to the market capitalization in the traditional market, that is, the share price multiplied by the number of shares. 2. Realized Value (Red Line): Unlike the market value, the realized value is calculated based on the price at the time of the last transfer of each Bitcoin. Specifically, the price of Bitcoin at each transfer in the past is taken into account, these prices are added up and averaged, and then multiplied by the total number of coins in circulation. Its calculation method helps smooth out the instantaneous fluctuations in market sentiment and provides a more indicative long-term indicator. 3. Z-score (orange line): This is a standard deviation test used to test the degree of deviation between the market value and the realized value. A Z-score helps identify extreme situations in the market, whether the market cap is overvalued or undervalued. In the figure, we can find that since the start of the first bull market in 2013, the peak performance of Z-scores has been two consecutive times, and the peak has ushered in a Z-score trough, and has lasted below the 0 axis for 9 months. Subsequently, the price returned to 200 MA (bull-bear dividing line) in Q4 of 2016, and the Z score also ushered in a turning point, breaking above the 0 axis in one fell swoop, and 2017Q2 ushered in a new high price and began a two-year bull market cycle. 2018 Q1 is the end of the third bull market, the current Z-score has created the second highest level in history, reaching a low in just one month, and the Z-score once again fell below the 0 axis negative score as the key support of the large convergence triangle of $6K was broken. Year 21 was a special bull-bear switch, which was not as good as expected new highs, and its Z-score only touched a 60% band high. At present (2023 Q4), its Z score stands above the 0 axis, and its price is listed in the 2016~2017 secondary market "extremely cold" period, the market value profit and loss record low, but its price still remains above 200 MA (bull-bear dividing line). The current bitcoin price reaction is like between 2019~2020, and the Z score is highly similar to the early stage of the long bull in 2016, the current medium and large mining farms whose cost price of one bitcoin falls around $17.2K, history will not be repeated, but will be surprisingly similar, in the prelude to the upcoming market conversion, always suck blood first, then probe the bottom, island reversal funds return. Using MVRV Z-Score, it can be roughly judged that the current market may be in the early stage of market transformation, and with the iteration of circulating funds, large growth/decline may be more difficult to appear, replacing the foundation and market of slow long-term bull/bear market. Moreover, it also reflects the performance of market maturity, and may eventually usher in long-term slow growth of the market maturity cycle.