Key Insights from Messari's 2025 Crypto Market Outlook Report

1. Overview

Messari has released a 190-page outlook report on the crypto market for 2025, covering the macro environment, institutional dynamics, user distribution, and analyses of various key sectors. The report employs analytical frameworks such as blockchain space economics and ecosystem mapping valuation.

2. Macroeconomic Environment

1. Economic and Regulatory Outlook

• 2025 will be a key year for the reform of US encryption policy, with FIT21 and the stablecoin bill expected to promote the standardization of the global crypto market regulatory framework.
• The report takes a cautious stance towards potential policy changes, believing that even if changes occur, they will be more favorable than the existing policies.
• Several institutions predict that the market trend in 2025 will present a "Banana ForScale" pattern, with new highs in the first half of the year, mid-term adjustments, and new highs again by the end of the year.

2. Institutional Trends

• Institutions are focusing on Bitcoin/ETH spot ETFs and RWA business.
• The boundaries between financial technology, payments, and encryption are becoming increasingly blurred.
• Institutional investment strategies tend to focus on AI and DePin sectors, with significant year-on-year growth in financing scale in these two areas.
• The US government is expected to consider collaborating with the DePin project in 2025.

3. User Distribution

• The number of active users is approximately 30 million to 60 million.
• Users are mainly distributed across platforms such as Phantom wallet, stablecoins, Telegram mini-programs, prediction markets, Base, and Hyperliquid.
• User growth in 2025 may rely more on the product capabilities of Dapps rather than market conditions or trending events.

3. Track Analysis

Bitcoin

• The inscription/rune ecosystem is expected to recover with the support of new projects and the NFT market.
• Progress is expected in the BitVM2 project.
• The BTC Staking project needs to improve its penetration among BTC holders.

Ethereum

• The status of ETH spot ETF is transcendent after approval.
• The upgraded pricing mechanism in Cancun has affected the ability to capture L2 fees.
• Ecological applications such as Friends·Tech, Farcaster, etc. are performing poorly.
• The overall ecosystem remains competitive.

Solana

• Key events in 2025 include the release of the Firedancer client, the landing of new DePin projects, and the prosperity of the AI agent ecosystem.
• It is necessary to reduce dependence on Meme coins and achieve ecological diversification.

Other public chains and infrastructure

• New high-performance public chains such as Monad and Sonic will join the competition.
• Excess supply of block space, developers' voice is elevated.
• Modular public chains are shifting towards the field of cross-chain interoperability.
• A new generation of L2 solutions is about to be unveiled.
• Important upgrades are coming to ecosystems like Avalanche and Cosmos.

DeFi

• PerpDEX development is receiving a lot of attention.
• RWA will develop in two directions: tokenization of US Treasury bonds and on-chain yield output.
• Pendle occupies an important position in the points finance field.
• A new technical route has emerged in the anti-MEV field.

AI x Crypto

• Divided into four categories: decentralized computing networks, coordination platforms, AI tool services, and applications.
• It is expected that by 2025, there will be significant progress in areas such as AI project token issuance platforms, decentralized training, and AI Agents.

DePin

• Divided into physical resource network ( PRN ) and digital resource network ( DRN ).
• Optimistic about multiple DePin projects in new energy, mapping, data, and more.
• Solana's dominance in the DePin space may face challenges.

consumer sector

• Web3 game mechanics are shifting from Play2Airdrop to Pay2Airdrop.
• The meme coin launch platform is trending towards gamification and personalized design.
• The NFT market is expected to experience a revival, and consumer chain projects are worth paying attention to.