Dow futures soared 100 points as bulls regained control ahead of the Super Week showdown.

On July 29th, Beijing time, Dow futures surged over 100 points during volatile trading. Although the gains narrowed in the final minutes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ultimately fell 114.46 points (0.25%) to 44,787.46 points, but the early momentum revealed long positions confidence.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both set new historical records during the trading session - the Nasdaq reached a high of 21,202.18 points, while the S&P 500 climbed to 6,401.07 points.

##Trade agreements implemented, market reaction is lukewarm

U.S. President Trump announced on Sunday a breakthrough trade agreement with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, reducing tariffs on European goods exported to the U.S. from a threatened 30% to 15%.

The agreement covers core categories such as automobiles (original tax rate 27.5%), semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, while certain industries like aircraft parts and specific chemicals are subject to a "zero tariff" reciprocity mechanism.

"This agreement is better than the 30%-50% tariffs threatened over the past few months," admitted Chris Turner, an analyst at ING. However, the financial markets reacted lukewarmly, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.11% and the Dow failing to hold its early gains.

The details of the agreement expose an imbalance of power: the EU commits to purchasing $750 billion worth of American energy and military products during Trump's term, while European companies are required to invest $600 billion in the U.S. TD Securities analyst Prashant Newnaha candidly described this as "a great victory for the United States."

Super Week Storm Eye, Five Major Events Reshape the Market

Behind the cautious stance of investors are five key events that are about to unfold intensively:

• Tech Giants Earnings Reports: Meta and Microsoft will release their earnings reports on July 30, followed closely by Apple and Amazon on July 31. More than 150 companies in the S&P 500 will report this week, with the effectiveness of AI spending becoming a core focus.
• Federal Reserve interest rate decision: The monetary policy meeting that ended on July 31 is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but the possibility of a rate cut in September has become the focus. The forward guidance from Fed Chair Powell will dominate the trends of the dollar and stock market.
• Trump Tariff Deadline: The window for imposing a 15%-20% global tariff on goods from non-agreement countries is approaching on August 1.
• Inflation data: The core PCE price index for June (the Fed's preferred measure) is expected to remain steady at 2.7% year-on-year, with overall inflation rising to 2.5%.
• Non-Farm Payroll Report: July's new job additions are expected to decrease to 102,000 (previous value 147,000), with the unemployment rate possibly rising slightly to 4.2%.

##Technical long positions stronghold, Dow Jones aiming for 46,800

Despite increased short-term volatility, the technical structure of the Dow Jones remains strong. The index closed at 44,901.92 points last Friday and has continued to trade above the key support level of 44,000 points this week.

Goldman Sachs' technical analysis report indicates that after the Dow Jones breaks the resistance at 45,050 points, it will open up upward space to 46,300-46,500, and may even challenge 46,800. The current support is anchored at 44,380 points, and a fall below this level may probe the 43,700-43,500 range.

The larger long-term goal points to 50,000 points—this outlook requires the Dow to effectively break through 46,800 to activate accelerated momentum.

The Nasdaq Index has demonstrated a stronger momentum, rising for five consecutive weeks and setting a new closing record for the year on July 29, marking the 15th time this year. Technical analysts expect it to challenge the range of 21,500-22,000, with a possibility of extending to 23,300 in the medium term.

Stock Dynamics and Sector Rotation

• Tesla has reached a $16.5 billion chip manufacturing agreement with Samsung Electronics, and Musk confirmed that the Samsung Texas plant will exclusively supply its next-generation AI6 chip. This news drove Tesla's stock price to rise 3.53% against the trend.
• Amazon founder Bezos executed a pre-set trading plan, selling 4.2 million shares on July 23-24 for a cash out of $954 million.
• Microsoft CEO Nadella explained the logic behind the layoff of 9,000 people in an internal memo, emphasizing the industry reality that "performance success coexists with layoffs" under the AI transformation.
• Meta received a "Buy" rating reaffirmed by Bank of America, with a target price of $775, expecting its second quarter revenue to be $45.5 billion (exceeding market expectations).

Cryptocurrency concept stocks experienced collective volatility, with CEA Industries surging over 1800% to $170 during the trading session, indicating that risk appetite continues to spread.

##Future Outlook

The current surge in Dow futures is just a rehearsal before the storm. Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the earnings reports from tech giants will form the first battleground of the bull and bear confrontation, while Friday's non-farm payroll data may become the last straw that breaks the hesitant.

Morgan Stanley analyst Nick Savone's observation points to the crux: "Individual stock reactions depend on forward guidance—especially when investors have repeatedly prepared for trade headlines."

The true touchstone for long positions in the Dow is whether it can build momentum at the support level of 44,380 to break through the 45,050 mark. Once successful, the starry sea of 46,800 and even 50,000 points will no longer be a fantasy.