Analysis of the Price Premium Phenomenon of Bitcoin Reserve Company Stocks

Recently, companies that have incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets have become a hot topic in the market. Although investors have various ways to gain direct exposure to Bitcoin, many still choose to invest indirectly in Bitcoin by purchasing shares of Bitcoin reserve companies, even though the stock prices of these companies exhibit a significant premium over the net asset value of the Bitcoin they hold.

The premium rate refers to the percentage difference between a company's stock price and the value of its Bitcoin holdings per share. For example, if a company holds Bitcoin worth $100 million and has 10 million shares outstanding, the net asset value per share of Bitcoin would be $10. If the stock price is $17.5, the premium rate would be 75%.

The main reason for this premium phenomenon may be that these companies are able to leverage the public capital markets. They can issue bonds and stocks to raise funds for increasing their holdings of Bitcoin. Essentially, these companies have become high-β proxy tools for Bitcoin, amplifying Bitcoin's sensitivity to market fluctuations.

The most commonly used and effective strategy is the "at-the-market issuance" ( ATM ) stock issuance plan. When the stock price is at a premium, the funds raised through the ATM plan can be used to purchase more Bitcoin, exceeding the dilution of Bitcoin holdings per share caused by the issuance. This creates a "per share Bitcoin holdings appreciation cycle," continuously amplifying Bitcoin exposure.

A well-known technology company is a typical representative of this strategy. Since 2020, the company has raised billions of dollars through various financing methods. As of June 30, 2025, the company holds 597,325 Bitcoins, accounting for approximately 2.84% of the circulating supply.

These financing tools are only applicable to listed companies, allowing them to continuously increase their holdings of Bitcoin. This not only amplifies Bitcoin exposure but also creates a compound narrative effect. Each successful fundraising and Bitcoin accumulation reinforces investors' confidence in this model. Therefore, investors buying stocks of such companies are not only purchasing Bitcoin but also buying the "ability to continuously increase Bitcoin holdings in the future."

The premium rates of different Bitcoin reserve companies in the market vary significantly. For example, based on data as of June 30, 2025, assuming the Bitcoin price is $107,000, a certain technology company has a premium rate of about 75%, while some smaller companies have premium rates even exceeding 200%. These valuations indicate that market pricing not only reflects the growth potential of Bitcoin itself but also incorporates a comprehensive consideration of capital market access, speculative space, and narrative value.

One of the key indicators driving the stock premiums of these companies is the "Bitcoin yield," which measures the growth of the company's Bitcoin holdings per share over a specific period, reflecting its efficiency in leveraging fundraising to increase Bitcoin holdings. Some companies excel in transparency, providing real-time Bitcoin data dashboards that dynamically update Bitcoin positions, Bitcoin holdings per share, and Bitcoin yield.

However, not all companies adopt on-chain verification mechanisms to prove their Bitcoin holdings. Some company executives believe that public reserve proofs may pose security risks, but this view is controversial. In fact, on-chain reserve proofs only require the disclosure of public keys or addresses, rather than private keys or signature data, which does not jeopardize asset security.

It is worth noting that the premise of this business model is the continuous existence of a premium. When the stock price falls to the net asset value, equity dilution will no longer have strategic significance, but will turn into value extraction. This model relies on a self-reinforcing loop: the stock price premium supports fundraising ability, fundraising is used to increase holdings of Bitcoin, and the increase in Bitcoin holdings reinforces the company narrative, which maintains the stock price premium.

If the premium disappears, this cycle will be broken: financing costs will rise, Bitcoin accumulation will slow down, and narrative value will weaken. Currently, Bitcoin reserve companies still enjoy advantages in capital market access and investor enthusiasm, but their future development will depend on financial discipline, transparency, and the ability to increase the per-share Bitcoin holdings. The "option value" that gives these stocks attractiveness in a bull market may quickly turn into a burden in a bear market.