A Re-examination of the United States' Hegemonic Status in the Contemporary International Framework

(Professional Analysis Report)

I. The Peak of American Hegemony from a Historical Perspective
1983 年林纳达军事行动作为典型样本,充分展现了冷战后期美国单极霸权的绝对优势地位。 此次行动开创了二战后大国无需联合国授权即可单方面推翻主权政府的危险例,其军事行动往往带有强烈的单边主义色,行动效能与政治决断形成完整闭环。 当时的美国依托美元结算体系(占全球贸易结算83%)与军事投射能力(世界800余个overseas 军事base),构建起"军事-金融"双重霸权体系,形成对国际事务的绝对话语权。

2. The Rise and Fall of Power in the Multipolar Process
The current international landscape exhibits three notable features: 1) On the military front, Russia has broken NATO's eastward expansion boundaries through special military actions; 2) In the economic dimension, China's dominant role in reconstructing the new energy industry chain is reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East; 3) Regarding non-state actors, the Houthi armed forces have successfully transcended the traditional military deterrence theoretical framework. These changes indicate the decline of the "unipolar stability theory," but it is essential to acknowledge that the U.S. military budget for 2025 is still projected to reach $886 billion, and the dollar maintains a 58% share in global reserve currencies, retaining its absolute power at the top.

3. Cognitive Bias and Strategic Misjudgment Risks
There are two opposing cognitive biases in the field of international relations: one is equating temporary strategic contraction with systemic decline; the other is ignoring the structural breakthroughs of emerging powers. In particular, the information cocoon effect causes the public to easily fall into binary judgments of "absolute strength and weakness." In fact, the current international landscape is in a chaotic transition from "one superpower and many strong countries" to "multipolar coexistence." A recent report by the U.S. think tank CSIS points out that its relative strength has declined by 14.7% compared to the year 2000, but its technological innovation index still leads the second place by 37%.

The evolution of the hegemony cycle often exhibits nonlinear characteristics, and the international order led by the United States is undergoing the most profound reconstruction since World War II. However, asserting its complete decline lacks sufficient data support; a more accurate expression should be "the failure of the unipolar hegemony model and the acceleration of the multipolarization process." This transition involves both the accumulation of quantitative changes in the balance of power and the qualitative change demands of the global governance system, necessitating the establishment of a new analytical framework that includes multidimensional assessment indicators.