EMC Labs November Report: BTC Approaching $100,000, Surging Liquidity Sparks Cryptocurrency Bull Market

The information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report regarding markets, projects, currencies, etc. are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

The cyclical giant wheel is turning, propelling the market, which was recently filled with fear and hesitation, into a new stage, and trading is heating up in this sudden surge of emotion.

As predicted in our October report 'Rise by 10.89%, BTC May Reach New High After US Election Chaos': the previous consolidation within the crypto market has been completed, and this month welcomes an external trigger - the end of the US presidential election on November 6th, with the Republican candidate Trump, who holds a friendly attitude towards Crypto, winning. The price of BTC continues to hit new highs, approaching $100,000.

The settlement of this annual major event has gradually brought traders in various financial markets out of chaos and uncertainty, returning to the established trading rhythm, and the US stock market has resumed pumping. The expectation of 'Trump economic policy' has become the main trading focus, with TSL and MicroStrategy being the stocks with the highest increase.

BTC also suddenly started in the downturn at the end of October, breaking through multiple technical pressures such as the "new high consolidation zone" and the "rise trend line", constantly setting historical highs, with the highest reaching $99860, recording a significant pump of 37.42% for the month.

With the warming of the trading market, November saw a huge influx of funds, recording a total inflow of $25.9 billion for the month, the largest inflow in the history of the crypto market.

With BTC approaching the $100,000 mark, the continuous inflow of funds has finally triggered a sharp rise in Altcoins represented by ETH, as well as a general uptrend.

Based on comprehensive and multidimensional analysis by EMC Labs, the second wave of the 'rising period' in the encryption market has already begun. In the future, funds will gradually flow into Altcoins, creating a general uptrend.

The potential high inflation that may be triggered by the "Trump economic policy" conflicts with the pace of interest rate cuts being carried out by the Federal Reserve, which is the biggest uncertainty. However, this uncertainty is just a minor discord in the overall stability and is not enough to change the market trend.

Macroeconomics: Trump's Economic Policies

The 'Trump economic policy' mainly includes tax cuts and deregulation, protectionist trade policies, energy independence and support for traditional energy, fiscal expansion and debt risks, immigration and labor policies, and political and debt management.

The economic policies driven by the "America first" spirit will pose great challenges to the existing global trade and financial order, triggering unforeseen conflicts and chaos. Even within the United States, there will be seemingly irreconcilable contradictions in the aspects of economic rise, illegal immigration, and the financial system.

The repatriation of illegal immigrants and the increase in tariffs may push up inflation, while the federal Intrerest Rate remains high. Inflation Rebound and interest rate cuts may be hindered. Without interest rate cuts, the government's fiscal expansion will undoubtedly be more difficult, and the large scale of high corporate debt will make the US government even more overwhelmed.

The Federal Reserve, which is in the process of cutting interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet, is also facing a dilemma. In November, the U.S. CPI saw an expected rebound, while employment data and economic conditions remained strong, which means the need for rate cuts has greatly diminished. Although the dot plot and the minutes of the Fed's meeting indicate that a 25 basis point rate cut in December is still a probable event, the rate cut process in 2025 will likely slow down.

Powell hopes to uphold professionalism, maintain economic stability, and normalize inflation levels. But Trump clearly intends to fulfill his campaign promises through reform and conflict — increasing corporate taxes, raising import tariffs, and providing more domestic employment. The two positions are almost irreconcilable, and their contradictions have become public.

Despite the great uncertainty, traders in various markets have taken sides and made decisions - going long on the US economy, with the most optimistic result being "high inflation, high rise".

In November, the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 recorded gains of 6.21%, 7.54%, and 5.74% respectively, while the RUT2000, representing small and medium-sized enterprises, recorded a gain of 11.01% and reached a new all-time high.

On the US bond side, the long and short end yields at the end of the month were 4.177% and 4.160%, respectively, both recording a slight decrease, indicating a temporary decline in bearish risk for US bonds.

The US dollar index continued to rise, closing at 105.74 in November, up 1.02% from the previous month. At the same time, the euro, renminbi, and yen all depreciated against the US dollar Exchange Rate. In the future, global funds remain optimistic about the US financial market, and the trend of buying US dollar-denominated assets continues.

In contrast, gold, which attracts global safe-haven funds, fell 3.41% within a month, recording the largest monthly decline in 14 months. As the post-pandemic era gradually emerges, liquidity is becoming more abundant, and global capital's risk appetite is increasing. Equity assets, as well as cryptocurrencies represented by BTC, are the beneficiaries of this increase.

Encrypted assets: BTC hits a historical high, Altseason may start at any time.

In November, BTC opened at $70198.02 and closed at $96465.42, with a 37.42% increase and a 47.12% fluctuation, with an enlarged Trading Volume.

After returning to the '200-day moving average' in November and crossing the 'downtrend line', BTC continues to make a significant breakthrough in technical indicators this month, breaking through the upper resistance of the long-lasting 'high consolidation zone' in August, and once again stepping on the 'rise trend line' after a gap of 4 months.

BTC daily chart PA

On the monthly chart, BTC has achieved three consecutive months of gains and the volume has continued to increase moderately, presenting a benign pump trend.

BTC monthly PA

In previous research reports, we have repeatedly emphasized that more than 30% of BTC in the consolidation zone of new highs from March to October this year have undergone Address transfers. This upward repricing has occurred repeatedly in previous cycles and has become the internal structural support for future price pumps.

The final breakthrough in price requires external conditions to trigger it.

The biggest global event in November was the re-election of President Trump as the President of the United States, and his enthusiasm for Crypto and the 'commitment' during the campaign became the emotional catalyst for BTC to break through the 'new high consolidation zone' that had been stuck for as long as eight months.

Is the "Trump market" for BTC sustainable? EMC Labs believes that whether it is last year's proposed "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" or this year's "American BTC Strategic Reserve Draft", or even the recently passed "BTC Rights Act" in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, it indicates that the United States' adoption of Crypto is gradually shifting from "allowing" to "promoting", with the goal of obtaining control over encryption assets and blockchain industry (public chains, infrastructure, and decentralized application projects) represented by BTC through legal regulations and national strategic support, ensuring that the United States gains a dominant advantage in this emerging field.

Therefore, in the coming years, the support from US policies and the adoption of Crypto by traditional institutions, including Financial Institutions and listed companies, can be foreseen to continue to increase. At no previous moment in history have the Block-chain industry and encryption assets been embraced and adopted to such an extent.

Liquidity Surges: Two Channels Resonate to Create Historical Record

The continuous inflow of funds is the material support of the bull market.

In November, the total inflow of BTC Spot ETF and Stable Coin amounted to $25.9 billion, setting a record for the largest monthly fund inflow. Among them, the ETF channel saw an inflow of $5.4 billion, while the Stable Coin channel saw an inflow of $19.5 billion. In November, the scale of ETF fund inflow exceeded that of February, becoming the largest inflow month.

Encryption market funds flow monthly statistics

Since October, with the approaching end of the US election, the first to start is the ETF channel funds. Since September, the inflow scale of the channel funds has gradually increased, with 1.2 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.4 billion inflows in September, October, and November, respectively. We have previously emphasized that the funds in the ETF channel have an independent will to gradually control the price movement of BTC. This point has been fully reflected in the recent market trends.

Compared to the "leading brother" who bravely shoulders heavy burdens, the Stable Coin channel funds are somewhat slow to react. It wasn't until November that there was a surge of funds entering with the continuous breakthrough of BTC prices. However, the total inflow of funds through the Stable Coin channel reached 19.5 billion US dollars for the whole month, far exceeding the inflow of funds through the ETF channel.

encryption market fund flow daily statistics

On November 22, when BTC hit the $100,000 mark, funds in the market started to activate ETH, which rose by 9.31% on that day. The cumulative increase of ETH in November reached 47.05%, surpassing BTC. The market seems to be opening up to Altseason.

EMC Labs believes that after BTC breaks through the $100,000 mark, Altseason will gradually open up. After Altseason opens up, the market will gradually show: 1. ETH breaking through historical highs; 2. Market-wide rise; 3. Gradual recognition of the main market trend.

Long and short game: Liquidity breeds the second wave of dumping

The cycle is a game of collecting and distributing chips that is conducted by hands of different lengths in the space-time range.

Long hands collect chips during the decline, grind, and repair periods, and continue dumping during the rise and transformation periods, until the Liquidity is difficult to absorb the selling pressure, and the market welcomes a reversal.

Since January 2024, Long has initiated the first large-scale dumping in this cycle. After the market entered a consolidation phase in March, it returned to a chip accumulation state. In November, with the recovery of Liquidity, the price hit new highs repeatedly. Long has initiated the second round of dumping, which is also the last large-scale dumping in this cycle.

BTC long-hand sell-off history over the past 15 years

As of the end of September, Longshou Holdings had 14.22 million coins in holdings, and by the end of November, the dumping holdings reached a scale of 13.69 million coins, with a dumping scale of 530,000 coins in two months.

In the rise period, the main reason for the dumping by long positions is the rise in price caused by Liquidity, and the rise in price is also a self-verification process of the market, which will attract more funds to flow in.

The long-handed second dumping just happened 2 months ago, with the continuous increase in Liquidity, it is expected to continue in the first half of 2025.

Conclusion

In November, the cycle once again demonstrated its strong market regulatory capacity.

EMC Labs believes that the fundamental reason for the rise in BTC and the entire crypto market is the continued interest rate cuts by major global economies and a significant increase in investor risk appetite, based on a well-structured internal framework. In addition, the significant increase in adoption and expectations of US national policies have also provided great emotional and material momentum.

We believe that these external factors will continue to provide support for the encryption market in the coming year. Therefore, after the encryption Bull Market restarts, it will continue to rise, with some twists and turns in between, but the second half of the rise period is bound to provide more lucrative returns for long-term investors.

EMC Labs (Emerging Laboratory) was founded by encryption asset investors and data scientists in April 2023. It focuses on Block chain industry research and secondary market investment in Crypto, with industry foresight, insight, and data mining as its core competitiveness, dedicated to participating in the thriving Block chain industry through research and investment, and promoting the well-being of humanity through Block chain and encryption assets.

For more information, please visit: