#BTC# Many brothers are asking whether the BTC four-year cycle bull and bear pattern still exists? Has this bull run really ended?

I will analyze using on-chain data and macro data.
The price of Bitcoin has always followed a four-year cycle.
Brothers know that the significant changes in the initial issuance rate of Bitcoin had a huge impact on its effective supply, thereby driving the formation of this cycle.
Currently, the total supply of Bitcoin is set at 21 million coins, of which more than 19.8 million have been mined.
In the last cycle in 2021, many people thought that this four-year cycle pattern was coming to an end, but that was not the case.
Instead, we saw a double top formation, with the second peak occurring at the end of 2021, which was the year after the Bitcoin halving.
If this four-year cycle repeats, it is expected to occur sometime in November or December this year.
It is important to know that Bitcoin does not exist in isolation; today it has become a trillion-dollar asset, and the channels for entering traditional markets are more convenient than ever.
Given that the impact of Bitcoin halving is gradually diminishing and this asset is maturing, I can't help but wonder if this four-year cycle can repeat again without a favorable macro environment.
Fortunately, the global money supply continues to grow, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is no longer so stringent.
I personally believe that by the end of 2025, the stock market may perform strongly. If this happens, Bitcoin's performance will most likely improve significantly, laying the foundation for a strong trend in the fourth quarter of 2025. I still firmly believe that later this year, Bitcoin is expected to break the $150,000 barrier.
During the analysis process, the power curve fitting method is used to adjust the historical prices of Bitcoin in order to compare the past cyclical prices with the prices in 2025.
Let's compare the situations of the years 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025.
In 2013, during the gradual recovery phase: financial conditions improved somewhat, but remained relatively fragile, economic growth was slow, inflation and interest rates were both maintained at low levels, the stock market performed strongly, and although the labor market was recovering, it remained weak.
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In 2017, it was at the peak of expansion: the overall economic situation was good, the economy maintained moderate growth, inflation was under control, interest rates gradually rose, the stock market was in a bull run, and the labor market was healthy, approaching the peak of expansion after the recession.
In 2021, it was a rebound phase driven by stimulus: the financial environment was extremely loose, economic growth was rapid, inflation rates rose, interest rates remained low, the stock market was prosperous, and the labor market was at the peak of recovery under the impetus of stimulus policies.
In 2025, during a stable period: the financial environment is more tightened compared to previous years, the economy maintains moderate growth, inflation is effectively controlled, interest rates are at a relatively high level, the stock market is quite volatile, the labor market is relatively stable, and overall, it is in a cautiously stable phase.
Let's take a look at the key data comparison below:
S&P 500 Index performance:
In 2013, it rose by 29.6%;
In 2017, it rose by 19.4%;
up 26.9% in 2021;
Down 4.4% from the beginning of 2025 to now.
Federal Funds Rate:
October 2013 was 0.09;
October 2017 was 1.3;
October 2021 was 0.08;
January 2025 is 4.33.
Percentage change in M2 money supply in the United States:
In 2013, it was 5.5%;
2017 was 4.8%;
12.6% in 2021;
January 2025 is 0.06%.​
US year-on-year inflation rate:
1.5% in October 2013;
October 2017 was 2.1%;
October 2021 was 7%;
January 2025 is 2.8%.​
U.S. unemployment rate:
6.7% in October 2013;
October 2017 was 4.1%;
October 2021 was 3.9%;
January 2025 is 4.1%.​
In my humble opinion, the reason I say that the bull run is still here is that everyone must remember one thing: there are no philanthropists in the crypto world, especially among market makers. They are even less likely to distribute and arbitrage at high levels during a sideways consolidation. The longer the sideways consolidation lasts at high levels, the greater the cost for the market makers.
The current market is in the "smart money handover stage". Those retail investors who have been scared off by the daily fluctuations may be personally handing over the bloodied chips to the promoters of the next major upward wave.
Remember: a true top is always accompanied by a FOMO frenzy, not the current panic discussions. Stay patient and wait for the whales to complete their final position restructuring. #BTC# #美联储3月利率决议#