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智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，对于中游，2025年以来需求保持强劲。
Market for its gross margin stability has raised concerns.
期间，经历了关税冲击、有色金属大幅上涨带来的直接成本冲击、油价大幅上涨的冲击。
As of February, the impact of the first two rounds of shocks on midstream gross margins has been relatively small,
甚至在近期中游提价带动下，中游毛利率出现小幅上行。
After the third round of shocks, the resilience of midstream profits may become more prominent.

华创证券主要观点如下：

一、中游制造毛利率的三重考验

（一）考验一：关税冲击
Starting from April 2025, the United States significantly increased tariffs globally.
From the perspective of tariff revenue, it was 8.16 billion USD in March last year,
by September last year, tariffs increased to 29.67 billion USD,
and then by February 2026, it dropped to 26.59 billion USD.
Therefore, it can be considered that the peak tariff pressure occurred in Q2-Q3 of 2025.

关注这段时间的中游制造毛利率，中游制造的毛利率为14.5%，
compared to Q2-Q3 of 2024, it decreased by 0.1 percentage points.

（二）考验二：直接成本冲击
Since October 2025, there has been a significant increase in non-ferrous metals.
From the perspective of PPI non-ferrous minerals and PPI non-ferrous processing,
the overall price increase was 18.6% (from October 2025 to February 2026),
during the same period, the cumulative increase of PPI in the midstream manufacturing sector was 0.9%.
From the cost side of the midstream manufacturing sector,
the combined cost of non-ferrous mining and non-ferrous processing accounts for 9% of total costs,
thus the significant increase in non-ferrous metals has a considerable impact on their costs.

我们观察上年Q4至今年2月期间中游制造业的毛利率变化。
During this period, the gross margin was 15.2%, better than the 14.8% of the same period last year.
即，有色金属大幅上涨的五个月时间内，中游整体的毛利率不降反升。
The reason may be related to the rapid growth of revenue and the increase in midstream ex-factory prices.

（三）考验三：油价冲击
The third test may come from oil prices.
The impact of oil prices may be transmitted to the cost side of the midstream through chemicals or electricity prices,
and may also impact midstream price transmission through demand-side shocks.
Historically, there have been periods of oil price increases that further enhanced midstream gross margins (Q2-Q3 2018),
as well as periods when gross margins decreased (Q2 2021 to Q3 2022).
The impact of this round of oil price increases on midstream gross margins remains to be observed.

但，考虑到中游的成本中有色的权重更大，
the impact of oil prices on China’s electricity prices is lower than that overseas, potentially increasing export shares,
this round of high oil prices due to supply shocks may lead to more energy investments driving increased midstream demand,
and other factors, midstream gross margins may be more resilient.

其中，油价对电价的影响，以2022年为例，
受俄乌冲突影响，全年油价中枢大幅上行。
欧洲电价（PPI口径，代表工业用电，下同）全年上涨61%，
美国电价全年上涨90.5%。
中国电价全年仅上涨5.1%。

二、1-2月工业企业利润数据点评

1-2****月，根据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长15.2%。
库存方面，截止至2026年2月，库存同比6.6%，前值为3.9%。
分所有制看，1-2月，国有控股工业企业利润增速为5.3%，私营企业增速为37.2%，外商及港澳台为-3.8%。

量、价、利润率拆分来看，量价双升**。
PPI同比，1-2月累计同比为-1.2%，去年12月为-1.9%。
工业增加值1-2月增速为6.3%，去年12月为5.2%；
收入端1-2月增速为5.3%，去年12月为-3.2%。
利润率方面，1-2月为4.92%，去年同期（可比口径）为4.49%。
利润率拆分来看，1-2月毛利率为15.2%，去年同期为14.9%；
费用率8.66%，去年同期为8.56%；其他损益收入比为1.58%，去年同期为1.80%。**

分行业来看，1-2月，采矿业同比为9.9%，制造业同比为18.9%，电热气水同比为3.7%。
制造业内部，中游装备制造业同比增速为23.4%，
其中计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业利润同比增长2.0倍；
电气机械和器材制造业增长6.2%；专用设备制造业增长4.3%，通用设备制造业增长3.6%；运输设备增长11.4%。
汽车制造业下降30.2%。部分制造业上游业绩也较好，包括有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长1.5倍，
化学原料和化学制品制造业增长35.9%，非金属矿物制品业增长16.2%。
相对而言，制造业下游业绩偏弱，增速为-5.6%。其中，酒饮料业绩下滑17.2%。

从收入端来看，
1-2月，制造业中游收入增速为8.8%。
制造业上游收入增速为4.26%，制造业下游增速为2.8%，采矿业增速为-0.3%，电热气水增速为0.54%。