Is Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Priced Right After Recent Share Price Weakness?

Simply Wall St

Fri, February 13, 2026 at 12:16 PM GMT+9 4 min read

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QSR

-6.15%

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If you are wondering whether Restaurant Brands International at around US$66 per share is offering fair value today, you are not alone. This article is going to unpack what that price really reflects.

The stock has recently been under some pressure, with a 5.7% decline over the last 7 days and a 4.2% decline over the last month, even though the 1 year return sits at 3.7% and the 5 year return at 30.3%.

Recent attention around Restaurant Brands International has focused on how the owner of Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs is positioning its global franchise system, including ongoing brand refresh and expansion initiatives across its portfolio. This context helps frame why the market might be reassessing both the growth opportunity and the risks baked into the current share price.

On our checks, Restaurant Brands International has a valuation score of 3 out of 6, which suggests the shares screen as undervalued on half of the metrics we review. Next we will walk through those valuation methods before finishing with a more complete way to think about what the stock could be worth.

Restaurant Brands International delivered 3.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Hospitality industry.

Approach 1: Restaurant Brands International Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes the cash Restaurant Brands International is expected to generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to what they might be worth in today’s dollars. It is essentially asking what a rational buyer might pay today for those future cash flows.

On this model, Restaurant Brands International starts with last twelve month free cash flow of about $1.30b. Analysts provide explicit free cash flow estimates out to 2028, with projections of $1.79b in 2026, $2.08b in 2027 and $2.30b in 2028. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates cash flows out to 2035 using the same two stage free cash flow to equity framework.

When those projected cash flows are discounted back and aggregated, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $84.27 per share. Versus a current share price around $66, this implies the stock screens as roughly 21.3% undervalued on this DCF view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Restaurant Brands International is undervalued by 21.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 55 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Story Continues  

QSR Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Restaurant Brands International.

Approach 2: Restaurant Brands International Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Restaurant Brands International, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are paying for each dollar of earnings. A higher or lower P/E often reflects what the market thinks about future growth and the risks around those earnings, so a business with stronger growth prospects or lower perceived risk typically justifies a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower “normal” range.

Restaurant Brands International is currently trading on a P/E of about 24.7x. That sits above the Hospitality industry average of around 21.7x and slightly below the peer group average of roughly 25.4x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for the company is 23.9x, which is its estimate of a more tailored P/E, based on factors like earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk profile. Because it is built from the company’s own fundamentals, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison against broad industry or peer averages.

Compared with this Fair Ratio of 23.9x, the current P/E of 24.7x is modestly higher, which suggests the shares screen as slightly overvalued on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:QSR P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 23 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Restaurant Brands International Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. These are simply your view of Restaurant Brands International’s story, linked directly to your own forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and then to a Fair Value that you can compare with today’s price inside the Simply Wall St Community page. Narratives update automatically when new information like earnings or news arrives, and you can see very different viewpoints side by side. For example, one investor might focus on long term China expansion, digital ordering and margin improvement, supporting a Fair Value nearer the US$93 bullish target. Another might concentrate on cost inflation, international execution risk and competitive pressure, landing closer to the US$60 bearish target.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Restaurant Brands International? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:QSR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include QSR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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