« Les leaders technologiques haussiers soutiennent à nouveau les actions américaines du secteur logiciel : victimes d'une panique liée à l'IA, erreur de jugement, déconnexion jamais vue depuis vingt ans »

Wedbush analyst, often referred to as the “tech bull flag bearer,” Dan Ives, challenged the ongoing sell-off in the U.S. software sector on Tuesday, calling it the most disconnected tech trade he has seen in the past 15 to 20 years. Ives believes that market fears over AI disrupting traditional software companies are exaggerated, leading to what he calls “AI ghost trading,” which has unfairly punished the sector. Data shows that the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has fallen 19% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has declined 0.4%.

Ives stated: “Ultimately, it’s the software—ranging from Salesforce (CRM.US) to ServiceNow (NOW.US), and in the cybersecurity domain, CrowdStrike (CRWD.US), Palo Alto (PANW.US)—that is key. I believe this is the most severe sell-off I’ve seen in this sector in decades.”

The analyst pointed out that recent progress by AI company Anthropic in intelligent agents could be a sign that software stocks are bottoming out. He remains convinced that the true value of AI lies in mature software platforms rather than pure AI companies.

Ives said: “My view is that AI may disrupt some pure software vendors that rely on a single product. But the reality is, data and value reside within the tech stack. They are embedded in companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Workday, Oracle, and others.”

He forecasted that 30% of AI spending will eventually flow to software companies, citing Palantir (PLTR.US) as already demonstrating monetization potential. He also expects industry consolidation. “Right now, even taxi drivers in Miami are bearish on software, but I see this as a bullish signal compared to my outlook for the software sector this year.”

Notably, the Wedbush analyst team led by Dan Ives indicated in early February that, although AI could pose short-term pressure on traditional software business models, market reactions to this risk are overly exaggerated. The current sell-off in software stocks already implies an extreme assumption of “industry-wide AI disruption,” which is not feasible in reality.

Ives pointed out that corporate clients are far more cautious about AI migration than the market imagines. Many companies are reluctant to expose their core data on immature new platforms just to chase AI gains, nor will they easily abandon software infrastructure built over decades with hundreds of billions of dollars. “AI is undoubtedly a headwind in the short term, but the current market pricing, as if the software industry is about to face an ‘apocalypse,’ is completely detached from reality.”

Wedbush emphasized that the large enterprise software ecosystem already contains trillions of data points. Emerging AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, in terms of data capacity and enterprise security, will find it difficult to fully take over these complex systems in the short term. This suggests that AI is more likely to be embedded as “integrated tools” within existing software platforms rather than replacing them entirely. Wedbush also pointed out that Microsoft (MSFT.US), Palantir, CrowdStrike, Snowflake (SNOW.US), and Salesforce are the five most promising software stocks to hold during the “software winter.”

Additionally, several market participants have expressed similar views that U.S. software stocks are being excessively sold off. Nvidia (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang dismissed concerns in early February that AI would replace software and related tools, calling such ideas “illogical.” Speaking at an AI conference hosted by Cisco Systems in San Francisco, Huang said that fears AI would diminish the importance of software are misleading. He believes AI will continue to rely on existing software rather than rebuild foundational tools from scratch.

Huang stated: “There is a view that the tools in the software industry are declining and will be replaced by AI… This is the most illogical thing in the world, and time will prove everything. Whether you are human or a robot, artificial or general-purpose, will you use tools or reinvent them? The answer is obvious: use tools… That’s why the latest breakthroughs in AI are about tool usage, because tools are designed to serve a clear purpose.”

JPM strategists also noted that, in the long term, whether traditional software companies will be replaced by AI remains uncertain, but the current market overreacts to AI disruption fears. Microsoft and CrowdStrike are among the representative companies with AI resilience that could benefit from AI-driven workflow efficiencies. The team pointed out that high switching costs and multi-year contracts in enterprise software provide a buffer against short-term shocks.