🔔 Tonight marks a critical moment — the US November retail sales data and PPI will be released at 21:30, simultaneously with the Supreme Court's final ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs. When these two events coincide, they will impact the crypto market through three channels: interest rate expectations, market liquidity, and policy certainty. Essentially, short-term volatility will be high, and the subsequent trend depends on whether the trend can be confirmed.

**The double-edged sword effect of retail sales and PPI**

If the data shows persistent inflation (retail MoM growth over 0.4%, PPI YoY or MoM rising), the market will lower expectations for rate cuts in 2026, US bond yields will rise, and the dollar will appreciate — at this point, crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, will come under pressure, with capital flowing into safe-haven assets, and futures liquidation orders increasing.

Conversely, if the data is below expectations, indicating weaker demand, expectations for rate cuts will reignite, liquidity conditions will improve, and crypto can indeed rebound in the short term. However, beware of the "recession trade" risk — in this context, risk appetite may suddenly reverse.

If the data meets expectations, volatility will be relatively restrained, and the market will continue to wait for the Fed's next statement and the tariff ruling outcome.

**Three possible outcomes of the tariff ruling and chain reactions in mining**

The ruling may support, oppose, or partially support the tariff policy. If tariffs are ultimately implemented, the costs for domestic US mining companies will significantly increase, and global hash power may further migrate to regions with lower tariffs, changing the geographical landscape of the mining industry.

**How to operate in these 2 hours**

After 21:30, the next 1-2 hours will be the peak of volatility. Stop-loss orders are essential; do not chase the market or panic sell. In the medium term, if inflation persists and tariffs are implemented, the crypto market may enter a range-bound oscillation; if rate cut expectations restart, institutional buying (such as spot ETFs) could push Bitcoin upward through a breakout.

Tonight is truly a watershed moment. Are you ready?