#密码资产动态追踪 Will the Fed Unleash Big Moves? Mitsubishi UFJ Bank Recently Dropped a Bombshell — The Dollar Will Continue to Fall This Year, and the Issue Is That Rate Cut Magnitude Could Far Exceed Market Expectations.

The story starts with Powell's remark: since April, U.S. monthly nonfarm payroll figures have been overstated by roughly 60,000. It sounds minor, but upon closer inspection, a pattern emerges — the U.S. is quietly losing job opportunities, yet the current money market remains tight; under such circumstances, economic optimism becomes routine.

What's more sobering is that political pressure for the Fed to loosen its grip is mounting, with even central bank independence coming under discussion. With multiple factors converging, Mitsubishi UFJ didn't hold back, laying out their trump card directly — by Q4 2026, the euro-to-dollar exchange rate is expected to rise from the current 1.1690 to 1.24.

This assessment has struck at the heart of the forex market. In other words: rate cuts will arrive more aggressively, and the dollar will weaken accordingly. This concerns how global assets are priced, so every subsequent move by the Fed will be scrutinized intensely. For traders, this wave of dollar weakness could become the main theme for the second half of the year.