A recent study pointed out an interesting phenomenon: when measured by the 2020 US dollar purchasing power, Bitcoin's actual value is approximately $99,848. In other words, it hasn't truly reached the $100,000 milestone yet.

This is not to deny how much Bitcoin has risen, but to highlight a often-overlooked issue—inflation is quietly changing our understanding of price milestones. For this institution-driven rally, this discrepancy is surprisingly realistic.

The root cause is straightforward: the purchasing power of the dollar is declining. Over the past few years, the amount of goods a dollar can buy has significantly decreased. To put it simply, the current dollar is equivalent to 0.8 of the 2020 dollar. This may sound abstract, but when converted into concrete numbers—$100,000 in 2025, in 2020 standards, is actually worth $80,000.

So, what would it take to reach the same purchasing power as $100,000 in 2020? Bitcoin's nominal price would need to approach $125,000. And the high point of this rally? It just happens to be near this region. That’s why this topic has sparked controversy.

For institutional investors, they are not concerned with nominal gains. Large institutions like pension funds care about real returns—that is, how much you actually earn after deducting inflation. This is also a hurdle Bitcoin must overcome to become part of macro asset allocation.

The current issue is not just this. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended CPI releases due to funding issues, and different statistical methods produce varying inflation rates. This makes assessing Bitcoin's true value even more complicated.

Market reactions have already shown everything. After Bitcoin surged in October, it then fell nearly 30%. Looking at the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the asset size dropped from $169.5 billion on October 6 to $120.7 billion on December 4. These figures are there, indicating the market is digesting these uncertainties.