CITIC Securities: The Fed will cut interest rates by 25bps in September, and will cut rates by 25bps again in October and December.

On September 8, CITIC Securities reported that the US August Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data weakened again, with the July unemployment rate rising to 4.248% and the August unemployment rate rising to 4.324%. The one-decimal unemployment rate recorded 4.3%, in line with market expectations. The number of new non-farm jobs added in August was significantly lower than expected, with both government and private sectors weakening. In addition, this week, ADP and PMI employment sub-indices and other US employment data showed a comprehensive weakening, confirming previous views: the US job market is not as healthy as the data suggests, the US job market continues to cool, and the economy continues to weaken, but it is not about to fall into recession. For the Fed, the risks in the job market will rise again. CITIC continues its previous view, expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bps at the September monetary policy meeting and to cut rates again by 25bps in October and December respectively. (Jin10)