Recently, there have been remarkable fluctuations in the Bitcoin market. The latest non-farm payroll data has triggered a sharp reaction in the market, sparking speculation among investors about the Fed possibly making significant interest rate cuts. However, a closer analysis of the current economic situation suggests that things may not be so straightforward.

Currently, the unemployment rate in the U.S. has risen to 4.3%. If it rises further to 4.4%, it will be seen as a strong signal of economic recession. More troublesome is that the U.S. economy is facing a dilemma: on one hand, the economy is clearly weakening, and the job market is cooling; on the other hand, inflation remains high. This puts the Fed in a difficult position: cutting interest rates may exacerbate inflationary pressures, while not cutting rates may lead to further deterioration of the economy.

From a technical analysis perspective, the price of Bitcoin is currently at a critical position. After the non-farm payroll data was released, the price briefly broke through $113,000 but failed to hold. Currently, the range of $112,075-$113,000 constitutes significant resistance, and breaking through and holding this range would indicate the establishment of a rebound trend. $114,411 is a higher key resistance level, and breaking this level may signal the end of the adjustment period.

On the support side, the range of $107,255-$108,666 is an important support area. If the price falls below $107,255, it may indicate that the adjustment is not over yet. A lower support level is at $105,386, which was the previous high of the upward wave.

Overall, the market is currently at a critical decision point. If Bitcoin can break through and hold above $113,000, it may initiate a new round of upward movement, initially targeting $114,411, and subsequently potentially challenging the previous high of $124,474. However, if the price fails to break through the resistance at $113,000 and falls below the support at $107,255, then a correction may continue, and it could even test lower support levels such as $105,386, or according to the retracement ratio, it may drop to $101,300 or $94,180.

In this uncertain market environment, investors need to stay vigilant and closely monitor price trends and changes in macroeconomic indicators to make informed investment decisions.