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📖 Day 1 · Quiz (Single Choic
The latest US employment data has triggered market turbulence. The non-farm payroll increased by only 22,000 in August, far below the expected 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This set of data seems to suggest that the labor market has reached a turning point, which may trigger a series of chain reactions.
After the data was released, the financial markets reacted violently. The dollar exchange rate plummeted, gold prices reached a historic high, and U.S. stock futures began to rise again after a brief decline. Notably, the correlation between the dollar and risk assets is stronger than ever, which may indicate that the dollar is shifting to a 'risk currency' rather than a traditional safe-haven asset.
However, this employment report may just be the prologue. The employment data to be released next week, the 'annual revision', may be even more impactful. If the number of jobs is significantly revised downwards like last year, it could completely change people's perception of the job market.
This report also adds uncertainty to the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve. If the job market remains weak, it may trigger market expectations for 'significant interest rate cuts.' However, the Federal Reserve also needs to consider other economic indicators when making decisions.
Overall, this employment report reveals the potential risks in the U.S. labor market and adds more variables to the future direction of the economy and policy-making. Investors and policymakers need to closely monitor subsequent developments to make more informed decisions.