According to the latest data, there has been a significant change in the U.S. labor market since April 2021. Currently, the number of unemployed individuals (7.24 million) has for the first time exceeded the number of job openings (7.18 million), marking a notable shift in the employment market landscape.
In the past few years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has maintained a state where job vacancies exceed the number of unemployed people, which often gives employees strong bargaining power. However, this trend has now reversed, indicating that the job market is cooling and economic growth may be slowing.
This change signifies that the job market is shifting from "demand exceeding supply" to "supply exceeding demand." Although this data may increase expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates—in fact, after the job vacancy data was released, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) predicted the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September has risen to 95.4% (as high as 97%)—this is not necessarily good news.
On the contrary, this may indicate that the U.S. economy is entering a downward cycle. The current market uptrend may resemble the situation during the last Jackson Hole annual meeting, where investors seem to remain optimistic under the shadow of an economic recession, a phenomenon vividly referred to as "celebrating a funeral."
As the job market cools down, companies may reduce hiring, while the number of job seekers has increased. This situation not only affects individuals' employment prospects but also reflects the broader economic conditions. Policymakers, businesses, and individuals need to closely monitor the development of this trend and prepare for potential economic adjustments.
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BearMarketBarber
· 09-06 15:15
The Fed is going to do point shaving.
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MEVSupportGroup
· 09-06 03:01
The big short positions are coming.
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SmartContractPlumber
· 09-03 23:50
The economic situation is not good.
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NftCollectors
· 09-03 23:48
On-chain employment will rise.
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TestnetScholar
· 09-03 23:39
The expectation of interest rate cuts remains uncertain.
According to the latest data, there has been a significant change in the U.S. labor market since April 2021. Currently, the number of unemployed individuals (7.24 million) has for the first time exceeded the number of job openings (7.18 million), marking a notable shift in the employment market landscape.
In the past few years, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has maintained a state where job vacancies exceed the number of unemployed people, which often gives employees strong bargaining power. However, this trend has now reversed, indicating that the job market is cooling and economic growth may be slowing.
This change signifies that the job market is shifting from "demand exceeding supply" to "supply exceeding demand." Although this data may increase expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates—in fact, after the job vacancy data was released, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) predicted the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September has risen to 95.4% (as high as 97%)—this is not necessarily good news.
On the contrary, this may indicate that the U.S. economy is entering a downward cycle. The current market uptrend may resemble the situation during the last Jackson Hole annual meeting, where investors seem to remain optimistic under the shadow of an economic recession, a phenomenon vividly referred to as "celebrating a funeral."
As the job market cools down, companies may reduce hiring, while the number of job seekers has increased. This situation not only affects individuals' employment prospects but also reflects the broader economic conditions. Policymakers, businesses, and individuals need to closely monitor the development of this trend and prepare for potential economic adjustments.