The Bitcoin market has recently shown unusual trends, breaking past patterns. Traditionally, after a halving event that occurs once every four years, the price of Bitcoin tends to reach new highs within the following year. However, in 2024, which should be the fourth cycle year, the market trend is completely unexpected.

At the beginning of the year, U.S. regulators approved the listing of a Bitcoin spot ETF, marking an unprecedented development. Surprisingly, the price of Bitcoin began to soar before the halving day (April 20). By the end of the year, the price broke through the $100,000 barrier, more than double the peak of the previous cycle.

The halving event essentially means that the number of new coins obtained by miners is reduced by half. In the past three cycles, the year following the halving has typically been a bull market, followed by a bear market lasting until the next halving. However, this time, the price reached a new high six months before the halving, seemingly breaking the traditional pattern.

It is worth noting that the large-scale entry of institutional investors has changed the market landscape. Taking MicroStrategy as an example, the company has been buying large amounts of Bit since 2020 and currently holds Bit worth over 74 billion USD. Just this year, the company has increased its holdings by 430 Bits. This massive influx of institutional funds is a variable that was not considered in past cycle models.

Some analyses suggest that the rise and fall cycles predicted by traditional cyclical models are approximately 1060 days. Based on the low point in 2022, it theoretically should peak in a few months. However, the influx of huge funds from institutional investors and ETFs has shattered this expectation, making market trends more unpredictable.

The approval of the spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is a significant turning point. This greatly lowers the barrier for ordinary investors to participate in Bitcoin investments, making Bitcoin trading as convenient as stocks. As more investors join in, market liquidity increases significantly, driving prices up.

In this new market environment, the traditional effects of halving seem to be overshadowed by other factors. The influx of institutional funds, the improvement of the regulatory environment, and the expansion of investment channels have jointly shaped a brand new Bitcoin market landscape. This landscape is full of uncertainty and brings new opportunities and challenges for market participants.