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Nick Timiraos, the "Fed's mouthpiece," quoted his previous tweet stating that Trump's dismissal of Cook is patently obvious; it is an open act of extortion and an attempt to pressure policymakers to force them to cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve's decisions are primarily based on its "dual mandate": to achieve price stability and maximize employment. Its decision-making process relies on a rigorous analysis of economic data such as inflation and employment reports, and uses this as the basis for adjusting interest rates. However, when external political pressures intervene, the certainty of this decision-making model will be disrupted.
The formulation of monetary policy will no longer be merely an economic issue, but will also incorporate the complex variables of political gamesmanship. The market needs to speculate whether each decision made by the Federal Reserve is driven by data or is influenced to some extent by the White House or Capitol Hill. This lack of transparency itself is the greatest source of uncertainty.
If the market generally believes that the independence of the Federal Reserve is weakened, the credibility of its decisions will be undermined. This could lead to a lack of trust in the Federal Reserve's guidance from the market, resulting in more severe short-term volatility.
Under political pressure, the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt a more accommodative policy than the economic data would suggest, in order to meet short-term political demands. However, if subsequent economic data proves this policy to be wrong, the Federal Reserve will face the risk of a sharp turnaround, which can be fatal for the market.
The uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policies is a double-edged sword for the crypto market, potentially bringing both opportunities and significant risks. If political pressure leads the Federal Reserve to adopt a faster pace of interest rate cuts or more accommodative monetary policy than originally planned, it will inject more liquidity into the market. Historically, excessive liquidity has often been a major driving force behind bull markets in the crypto space. Investors seek high-return risk assets, and cryptocurrencies are undoubtedly the top choice among them. Some investors may view cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, as a tool to hedge against potential uncertainties in the traditional financial system. If the central bank's credibility is damaged due to political interference, public confidence in fiat currency may waver, leading to a shift towards decentralized, government-controlled digital assets.
Political pressure may lead to sharp fluctuations in policies, and this uncertainty will transmit to all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The market may experience extreme volatility in the short term due to news rather than being driven by fundamentals. In response to political pressure or to stabilize the market, regulatory agencies may adopt a tougher stance. If regulation is used for political purposes, it could trigger stricter scrutiny or even suppression of the crypto industry. If the independence of the Federal Reserve is severely eroded, resulting in its inability to effectively respond to inflation or economic recession, then the entire macroeconomy may face greater systemic risks. In such cases, the crypto market could also struggle to remain unaffected and may fall into chaos.