Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown an unstable trend, attracting the attention of investors. A well-known encryption currency advisor's massive investment has already incurred significant losses, with its $680 million Bitcoin position currently showing an unrealized loss of over $10 million, and the average holding cost is approximately $118,000.

From a technical analysis perspective, multiple indicators are showing bearish signals. The Wyckoff analysis reveals a typical distribution structure, and the 4-hour chart presents a "weak rebound followed by a second bottom" pattern. This trend is generally interpreted as a continuation of the downtrend.

Specifically, on August 22, the price of Bitcoin briefly reached a high of $121,700, but failed to hold, quickly falling back to around $116,000. This trend aligns with the characteristics of "false breakout, true distribution" in Wyckoff theory, suggesting that large funds may take the opportunity to offload.

It is worth noting that the trading volume has continued to shrink during the recent rebound, which is seen as a typical "demand-less rebound," further increasing the downward pressure. Analyzing from the perspective of the Chan theory, the structural trend at the 4-hour level has already been damaged, and the downward trend that started from the peak of $125,000 is still ongoing.

Currently, the key support levels that the market is focusing on are $109,000 (corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level) and $103,000 (previous low area). $118,000 is viewed as the dividing line between bulls and bears; if the price cannot break through this level, it may confirm a bear-dominated pattern.

Given the current market environment, investors should remain cautious. Blindly bottom-fishing without clear reversal signals may pose significant risks. Instead, one might consider looking for shorting opportunities during rebounds or following the trend when key support levels are broken. Regardless of the strategy employed, strict risk management is essential.