The Fed's interest rate cut policy has always been the focus of market attention. Historically, interest rate cuts can be divided into two types: preventive rate cuts and crisis response rate cuts. The rate cuts in 1990, 1995, and 2019 belong to the former, with the main goal of avoiding potential risks, which usually injects new rise momentum into the market. In contrast, the rate cuts in 2001 and 2008 were forced large cuts under the pressure of financial crises, leading to severe fluctuations in the market.

In the current economic environment, we observe a weak labor market, trade tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainties, but inflation has shown signs of easing. This situation is more akin to a "preventive interest rate cut" backdrop rather than a severe economic crisis. It is precisely this relatively positive environment that has allowed risk assets to strengthen continuously this year, with Bitcoin and U.S. stocks reaching new highs.

The current environment of the cryptocurrency market is also significantly different from the past. On the policy front, there have been unprecedented favorable developments: stablecoins are gradually being integrated into the regulatory framework, digital asset treasury (DAT) and corporate allocation strategies represented by MicroStrategy have become new trends, institutional investors are officially entering the market through ETFs, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is also accelerating. These diversified developments lay a broader foundation for the market.

Although some are concerned that the interest rate cut in September may lead to a short-term peak in the crypto market, from the perspective of capital flow, this worry may be exaggerated. The size of U.S. money market funds has reached a record $7.2 trillion, with large amounts of capital stuck in low-risk instruments. Historical data shows that outflows from money market funds are often positively correlated with rising prices of risk assets. With the implementation of the interest rate cut policy, this capital is likely to seek higher-yield investment opportunities, bringing new rise momentum to the cryptocurrency market.

Overall, the current economic environment and policy direction have created relatively favorable conditions for the cryptocurrency market. Investors should closely follow the Fed's policy trends and market capital flows to seize potential investment opportunities. However, given the high fluctuation of the cryptocurrency market, investors still need to remain vigilant and manage risks.