Recently, the reform plan for DOGE proposed by Elon Musk has sparked widespread discussion in the crypto world. This proposal aims to balance the rise and scarcity of DOGE, but it has also triggered conflicts regarding technical upgrades and profit distribution.

The core content of the reform includes halving the annual new token issuance and introducing a destruction mechanism. Theoretically, this will gradually make DOGE a deflationary currency. However, practical implementation faces numerous challenges. First, miners may resist the upgrade due to a significant reduction in annual income (about $1.2 billion). Second, the DOGE blockchain has relatively simple functions and may need to rely on cross-chain bridges with higher security risks. More importantly, investors have sold approximately 2.3 billion DOGE, reflecting the divergence of opinions within the community.

The success or failure of the reform will mainly depend on two factors: the approval results of the grayscale ETF in October, and the level of support from mining pools for the new system. If the reform is successful, the DOGE price could rise to $0.69, becoming the first deflationary meme coin, with a market capitalization expected to exceed $100 billion. Conversely, the price could drop to $0.16, potentially failing to cover miners' costs.

For investors, it is recommended to closely monitor the two key signals mentioned above. Small purchases can be considered around $0.24, but it is essential to use tools like options to hedge risks. At the same time, be wary of two potential black swan events: the SEC may classify DOGE as a security, leading to hefty fines; the Qubic computing power alliance may launch an attack.

Overall, the future direction of DOGE remains highly uncertain. Investors should act cautiously and avoid concentrating all their funds in a single asset to diversify risks.