From Exchange to On-Chain Strategy: The Growth Journey of a Data-Driven Trader

In 2017, a young man born in Taiwan entered the cryptocurrency field and started his trading career. In 2019, he joined the listing department of an exchange, focusing on on-chain data analysis and project due diligence. This experience not only allowed him to accumulate a deep understanding of the industry but also laid a solid foundation for data analysis.

In 2022, this trader chose to leave the exchange and start his own business. Initially, he focused on the development of NFT application projects. However, as the popularity of the NFT market gradually declined, he keenly observed the rise of Memecoin trading and quickly adjusted his direction, concentrating his strategy on on-chain trading and data-driven investment decisions. He and his team developed various analytical tools and trading bots to monitor the movements of on-chain addresses and generate trading signals.

This trader's strategy is characterized by a distinct feature: it does not focus on narrative valuation but rather emphasizes on-chain monitoring and strict take-profit and stop-loss rules. He stresses that by setting clear take-profit and stop-loss strategies, trading can be freed from the interference of subjective emotions.

At the same time, he also pointed out that trading logic needs to be continuously optimized. Initially, he focused on the trading behaviors of on-chain smart money, then expanded his focus to team trading behaviors, and finally to the key addresses of individual tokens. Through in-depth analysis of these on-chain activities, he continuously improved the accuracy of trading decisions.

Currently, his main holdings include BTC, ETH, and SOL, which form the cornerstone of his core investment portfolio. In addition, the recently outstanding performance of MOODENG has become an important milestone for him: achieving a 5000-fold return in a short period of time. However, for this trader, the significance of MOODENG goes beyond just profits.

The true value of MOODENG lies in the verification of the effectiveness of its data-driven strategy. By tracking the on-chain behavior of MOODENG's main addresses, he confirmed the trading theory of "following the main players." This practical result not only enhances the credibility of his strategy but also provides valuable experiential support for future trading decisions.

Data and Discipline: The Key to Successful Trading

During the trading process, the trader emphasizes the standardized strategy of "doubling down on the principal and cutting losses in half," which is the core of their risk management. This strategy avoids market sentiment interference with clear rules and verifies the feasibility of a positive expected value (EV) through mathematical models.

In trading, you only need to maintain a win rate of over 33% to achieve positive EV. For example:

• Profit-taking scenario: Sell all assets after they double, achieving a 100% return.

• Stop-loss scenario: Sell all after asset is halved, losing 50%.

Based on the above assumptions, when the win rate reaches or exceeds 33%, the trader's long-term profit will show positive growth. This trader's strategy is probability-based, focusing on maintaining a stable mindset and avoiding fluctuations in trading decisions due to short-term market volatility.

At the same time, his team developed a series of tools centered around data to provide users with in-depth insights into market hotspots and major player behavior:

Token Insider Analysis

Analyze the holding structure and address behavior of tokens through big data. Its core functions include:

• Main force behavior identification: Filter addresses that have transfer associations or collective trading characteristics, classifying them as "gang" or "main force cluster".
• Snapshot and Trend Analysis: Qualitative and quantitative assessment of the concentration of token holdings to identify whether the main players are accumulating.
• Behavioral model optimization: Combining the transfer behavior of addresses (such as the use of cross-chain bridges or mixers) and on-chain capital flow trends to form accurate predictions of major operations.

FOMO Signal

This is a real-time trading signal tool developed based on a database of thousands of smart money addresses accumulated by the team. When a group of historically high-performing addresses collectively buys a certain token in a short period, the tool will issue a signal. This signal can help users quickly capture market hotspots and determine whether the token has potential short-term upside.

These tools provide users with a complete trading support system. For example, when the token insider analysis tool shows that the main force's accumulation level of a certain token has reached its peak, and the FOMO signal captures the collective buying behavior of several smart money investors, this usually indicates that the token may become a market hotspot. Users can establish positions and track trends based on the data provided by the tools, combined with strategies of doubling their capital and stop-loss at half.

Data Strategy for Capturing Institutional Trends

In the cryptocurrency market, the main players profit by accumulating and distributing assets, and during this process, on-chain holding behaviors inevitably change. The core of trading strategy lies in how to capture the behavior patterns of the main players through data. For example, during the accumulation period, the main players exhibit specific on-chain behaviors that can be aggregated and converted into trading signals.

However, as more people adopt similar strategies, the main players may adjust their strategies or even hide their actions. Therefore, the effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be continuously adjusted and optimized to identify the possible hidden behaviors of the main players. This trader believes that this is an ongoing game, and a dynamically optimized monitoring model is key to the long-term effectiveness of the strategy.

His strategy starts with tracking "smart money", which typically achieves a win rate of over 40% in the market and generates significant returns. By filtering these addresses with tools, he and his team established their own DAO and monitoring list, continuously monitoring a cluster of high-performing addresses.

The core methods of the strategy include:

• Identify collective actions: Team monitoring has found that certain address clusters operate synchronously, including collective accumulation and distribution behaviors. This pattern becomes the basis for strategies.
• Position Control: When following the main forces, avoid entering the top 100 holdings list to maintain a low profile and not affect the main forces' trading rhythm. Typically, the buying position should not exceed 0.5% of the token's market value.
• Signal response: When a cluster in the watchlist collectively enters a certain token, the strategy follows up with small exploratory amounts to avoid prematurely exposing its own actions.

MOODENG's Trading Case

The successful trades of MOODENG are an important milestone for this trader team. In September 2024, the team monitored a long-term high-performing address cluster massively entering MOODENG and quickly accumulated. Based on the main force's past trading methods, the team maintained small purchases and gradually followed up.

During the trading process, the main force tests the market's buying and selling sentiment through multiple price increases and pullbacks, while ensuring that the concentration of chips is not diluted. This trader monitors the changes in the holding ratio of these main addresses in real-time and finds that the main force always absorbs chips again after each pullback. This phenomenon has increased the team's bullish confidence in MOODENG.

In the end, MOODENG rose from an initial small market capitalization to hundreds of millions, and the team not only gained substantial profits but also validated the trading theory of "following the main force" through this process.

Capture the capital rotation opportunities in the crypto market

The cyclical changes in the cryptocurrency market have a significant impact on the execution of trading strategies. From a macro perspective, the focus of capital varies at different times:

Mainstream Coin Rotation: Funds may concentrate on mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH, at which point on-chain liquidity is scarce and trading volume is low.

Emerging Public Chains and Hotspot Switching: Ecological hotspots will switch between public chains, such as the recent transfer from ETH to Base, BSC, and then to Solana. Solana has become a breeding ground for high-frequency trading and innovative projects due to its high TPS and low gas fees.

Meme Track and Narrative Shift: In more segmented tracks, such as Meme tokens, funds will also rotate due to updates in the launchpad or changes in narratives. For example, the focus of market funds constantly shifts from Solana's high-frequency PVP market to new projects on the Base chain.

By using on-chain data tools like Dune, this trader's team monitors on-chain trading volume and capital flow in real-time to assist in decision-making. For example, recent capital rotation indicates that the emerging virtual economy on-chain (such as AI Agent, Virtuals) has become a hotspot, suggesting that the team needs to adjust their positions in a timely manner to follow capital trends.

The Importance of Staying Calm and Disciplined

Bull markets provide numerous opportunities, but they also come with high risks. In such a market, it is especially important to maintain calm and discipline:

Independent Judgment: This trader emphasizes that trading should be centered around validating strategies rather than catering to market sentiment. He points out that emotional fluctuations in a bull market can easily lead traders to be misled by the "eternal bull market" narrative, resulting in excessive optimism.

Timely Profit Taking: One major trap in a bull market is "reluctance to sell." Even when the market is rising, partially taking profits is key to maintaining a long-term advantage. Even if higher price points are missed, controlling risk always takes precedence over chasing higher returns.

Support for Stable Cash Flow: Cash flow is the anchor for calm trading. By obtaining stable cash flow through core business or quantitative funds, dependence on short-term market fluctuations can be reduced, making trading more composed.

In a bull market, traders often face anxiety, which can include: fear of missing out, returns not meeting expectations, and psychological fluctuations caused by short-term pullbacks. In response, this trader also shared his coping strategies:

Focus on Trading Framework: Trades that exceed the framework, even if profitable, are not considered successful. The core of trading is to validate strategies and refine understanding, rather than temporary gains.

Create a Calm Communication Environment: Avoid being influenced by emotional signals and maintain communication with calm and rational trading partners. Especially during a bull market, overheated emotions can easily lead to irrational decisions.

Remember the cyclical nature of the market: He pointed out that a bull market is not "eternal", but rather a cycle where opportunities and risks coexist. Even with strong bullish sentiment, one must be cautious of risks, especially when there is only a single narrative in the market without clear supporting logic.

Methods to Quickly Enhance Cognitive Levels

This trader believes that the core of personal growth lies in upgrading one's circle. Interacting with individuals of high cognition can significantly accelerate one's cognitive iteration. He emphasizes that breaking through the social comfort zone and actively interacting with outstanding people is an important way to enhance oneself.

In the process of trading and entrepreneurship, he seeks his own breakthrough by constantly learning from the successful experiences and methods of others. The influence of communication with people is subtle and profound. The actions and results of successful individuals around him can inspire him to think and further optimize his own path. He advocates "upward networking," discovering more possibilities by interacting with better people.

He also mentioned that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" is a book that has had a profound impact on his financial thinking. This book emphasizes the concept of the four quadrants of wealth and teaches him to think about wealth management from the perspective of "making money work for you." He noted that this book breaks the traditional education notion of "stable jobs" and inspires him to explore the possibilities of entrepreneurship and investing.

In addition to books, his progress is also attributed to other sources of knowledge. For example:

1. on-chain analysis KOL

• Ai Aunty: Focusing on on-chain data analysis, providing in-depth market insights.
• Mr. Mai: Based on market behavior and human nature analysis, explain the logic of the main force's behavior from another perspective.

2. Social Media and Community: By following active traders on Twitter and Telegram, quickly capture market trends and discuss new tracks and business opportunities with team members.

In addition, this trader believes that the integration of understanding between Web2 and Web3 is an important direction for the future. He and his team often study business cases in Web2, exploring how to replicate successful models in Web3. This interdisciplinary thinking allows him to stay ahead in the exploration of new tracks.

Summary and Recommendations

Data-Driven and Continuous Optimization: Data-driven trading strategies have been validated as feasible in practice, but they require continuous dynamic tuning. Additionally, whether it is the rotation of on-chain hotspots or the switching of track narratives, it is essential to remain sensitive and adaptable.

Patience and Discipline: Successful trading relies not only on strategy but also on a stable mindset. Whether in a bull market or a bear market, following trading rules and maintaining independent judgment are essential for gaining a long-term advantage.

Establishing a Foundation of Awareness and Cash Flow: With a stable cash flow as a foundation, traders can face market fluctuations with a more composed attitude. Through "continuous learning" and "