The starting point of the structural slow bull of Bitcoin has been formed

We are at the starting point of a slow bull cycle for Bitcoin that spans a long period, even ten years. The approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023 is a key turning point, causing Bitcoin's market attributes to gradually shift from being a complete risk asset to a safe-haven asset. Currently, this is the early stage of Bitcoin becoming a safe-haven asset, while also being in an environment where the U.S. is entering a rate-cutting cycle, providing a good growth space for Bitcoin. The role of Bitcoin in asset allocation is shifting from "speculative object" to "asset allocation tool," stimulating a longer cycle of demand increment.

The evolution of the attributes of this asset happens to occur at the turning point where monetary policy shifts from tight to loose. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is not just an abstract macro background, but a price signal of funds that has a substantial impact on Bitcoin.

Under this mechanism, Bitcoin presents new operational characteristics: whenever signs of a market correction appear after overheating sentiment, and prices are about to enter the bear market edge, there will be a wave of "liquidity" coming in, interrupting the downward trend. Other crypto assets temporarily lack mid-term allocation logic due to evaporated valuation excess and unimplemented technology; at this time, Bitcoin becomes the "only certain asset to bet on." As long as easing expectations persist and ETFs are still absorbing funds, Bitcoin is unlikely to form a conventional bear market throughout the entire interest rate cut cycle, at most experiencing phased corrections, or undergoing localized bubble clearing due to sudden macro events.

This means that Bitcoin will traverse the entire interest rate cut cycle as a "safe-haven asset", and its price anchoring logic will gradually transition from being "driven by risk appetite" to being "supported by macro certainty". As time progresses, ETFs mature, and institutional allocation weights increase, Bitcoin will also complete its preliminary transformation from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset. When the next interest rate hike cycle begins, Bitcoin is likely to be truly trusted by the market as a "safe haven under interest rate hikes" for the first time. This will not only enhance its allocation position in traditional markets but may also gain part of the funds siphoning effect in competition with traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and bonds, thereby initiating a structural slow bull cycle spanning a decade.

Tariffs as a Positive Adjustment Tool for Bitcoin

In the past few months of the tariff process, Trump's primary policy direction has been the return of manufacturing and improving finances, while targeting major rival countries in the process. In aiming to improve the government's financial situation, Trump may sacrifice price stability or economic growth. The financial condition of the U.S. government deteriorated rapidly during the pandemic, and the surge in 10-year Treasury yields over the past few years has more than doubled the government's interest payments within three years. Although tariff revenue accounts for less than 2% of the federal tax structure, Trump continues to emphasize tariffs.

The purpose of tariffs is to determine the attitude of allies and exchange for security protection. According to the analysis by Milan, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, tariffs are an "abnormal tool for intervening in the market" used specifically in crises or confrontations. The strategic logic of U.S. tariff policy is increasingly approaching "fiscal weaponization," not only "self-generating" financially but more importantly, "externally extracting rents" on a global scale. The U.S. is attempting to restructure the global trade system into a "friend-shoring trade network" centered around the U.S., forcing key industrial chains to shift to allied countries or back to the U.S. Trump proposed imposing high tariffs on all Chinese imports, essentially forcing global manufacturers to "pick sides" and shift production capacity from China to Vietnam, Mexico, India, and even back to the U.S.

However, tariffs are a double-edged sword. They can raise the prices of imported goods, stimulate inflationary pressures, and challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Additionally, they may provoke fierce retaliation from rival countries, as well as protests or even reprisals from allied nations. When tariffs threaten capital markets and the interest costs of the U.S. government, Trump becomes very nervous and immediately releases favorable news about tariffs to salvage market sentiment. Therefore, Trump's tariff policy has limited destructive power, but whenever sudden news about tariffs emerges, the stock market and Bitcoin prices tend to pull back. It is appropriate to view tariffs as a positive adjustment tool for Bitcoin; under the premise of declining recession expectations in the U.S., the likelihood of tariffs alone creating a black swan event is very low.

The Inevitable Decline of the Dollar's Status and the New Mission of Stablecoins

For Trump, it is acceptable to appropriately sacrifice the dollar's status in international currency reserves in order to achieve the goal of manufacturing returning to the U.S. Part of the hollowing out of American manufacturing is due to the strength of the dollar. When the dollar remains strong, the world's demand for dollars continues to rise, leading to a persistent financial surplus, which ultimately contributes to a sustained trade deficit, driving American manufacturing overseas. To ensure the return of manufacturing, Trump frequently wields tariffs as a weapon, but this process will accelerate the decline of the dollar's status.

In the context of the rapid evolution of the global financial landscape, the relative weakening of traditional dollar dominance has become an undeniable fact. This change is the result of the long-term accumulation and evolution of multiple structural factors. Although the dollar's dominant position in international finance and trade remains solid, a deeper examination from the perspectives of underlying financial infrastructure, capital expansion paths, and the effectiveness of monetary policy tools reveals that its global influence is facing systemic challenges.

The trend of multipolarization in the global economy is reshaping the relative necessity of the US dollar. With the rapid development of other economies, especially the growth of financial self-organizing systems in Asia and the Middle East, the dollar-centric single settlement mechanism is gradually facing competition from alternative options. The traditional global liquidity advantage and settlement monopoly of the dollar are beginning to be eroded.

The United States has demonstrated a trend of credit overdraw in its fiscal and monetary operations in recent years. The past credit expansion and excessive issuance of the dollar have had their side effects significantly amplified under the conditions of a more synchronized global market in the digital age. The inertia of the United States' financial governance tools is fully exposed when the traditional financial order has not yet fully adapted to the new growth model dominated by the digital economy and AI.

The US dollar is no longer the only asset carrier that can provide global settlement and value storage; its role is gradually being diluted by a variety of protocol assets. The rapid evolution of the Crypto system is also forcing sovereign monetary systems to make strategic compromises. The passage of the GENIUS Act can be seen, to some extent, as a strategic response and institutional concession by the US federal system to the financial logic of this new era.

GENIUS Act: A "strategic compromise of retreat for advancement"

The GENIUS Act reflects not a conventional regulatory action, but rather a strategic "retreat to advance" proactive compromise. The United States has a clear understanding of the paradigm shift in currency governance caused by Crypto and is beginning to attempt to achieve a kind of "leverage" on future financial infrastructure through institutional design. The widespread distribution of dollar assets within the Crypto system makes it impossible for the U.S. to block its development through a mere regulatory document; instead, it needs to ensure through institutional "inclusive regulation" that dollar assets are not marginalized in the next stage of on-chain currency competition.

The strategic significance of the GENIUS Act lies in the fact that it no longer aims primarily to "suppress," but rather seeks to reintegrate the development of USD stablecoins into the federal perspective by constructing a predictable compliance framework. If signals accepting the logic of Crypto finance are not proactively released, there may be a forced acceptance of a non-USD dominated on-chain financial system. Once the USD loses its status as an anchor asset in the on-chain world, its global clearing capacity and ability to export financial instruments will also diminish.

The GENIUS Act is a "tactical retreat" of sovereign currency under a new paradigm, aimed at reintegrating resources and re-anchoring the on-chain monetary power structure. The United States chose not to engage in direct confrontation or impose strict regulation, but made a trade-off through the GENIUS Act—sacrificing direct control over the marginal parts of crypto assets in exchange for legitimizing stablecoin dollar assets; relinquishing part of the on-chain order construction rights in exchange for the continuation of anchoring rights over core assets.

The role of shadow currencies is amplified through Crypto tools

The introduction of the GENIUS bill is ostensibly an adjustment to the issuance order of stablecoins, but its deeper significance lies in: the dollar's monetary structure is exploring a new expansion mechanism, extending the original shadow currency logic through on-chain systems. The practice of the Restaking model within the DeFi ecosystem offers direct insights into this structural change. Restaking is not merely the reuse of assets, but a way to maximize the efficiency of the underlying collateral through protocol layer logic, achieving credit derivation and reuse of on-chain assets without altering the original credit source. Similar ideas are being borrowed from the fiat currency world to construct a second-layer amplification mechanism for "on-chain dollars."

The shadow banking mechanism in the traditional financial system achieves the money multiplier effect through off-balance-sheet credit expansion and non-traditional intermediaries. In contrast, the on-chain stablecoin system possesses stronger modularity and automation characteristics, making the formation path of the money multiplier not only shorter but also more transparent. If the collateral for the stablecoin is U.S. Treasury bonds, its essence is to use national credit as the primary anchoring source, which is then magnified through on-chain protocol structures in multiple rounds. Each round of amplification can be designed as partially collateralized, circularly staked, or cross-supported by multiple assets. With sufficient on-chain liquidity and scenario demand, a complete new system of dollar credit expansion driven by on-chain logic can be formed.

This structure not only continues the hierarchical characteristics of traditional shadow currencies but also introduces more operational on-chain clearing and tracking mechanisms. Especially after the multi-chain deployment and cross-chain clearing and settlement framework gradually matures, the liquidity path of on-chain stablecoins will no longer be limited to centralized exchanges or payment platforms, but may delve deeper into more protocol layer stacks. In such a structure, every instance of re-staking or asset wrapping could become a new credit layer node. The GENIUS Act does not explicitly prohibit such operations, which implies that the regulation itself defaults to the sustainability of the on-chain shadow currency structure, only filtering and reviewing the first-level issuance.

The currency multiplier effect in the on-chain environment has inherent composability. Once on-chain stablecoins have a broad protocol circulation foundation, their staking capability will no longer be limited by the asset-liability structure of traditional finance, but will instead be realized through smart contracts that enable more granular asset transfer pathways. This also means that the credit boundary of on-chain dollars will be jointly determined by market behavior and protocol design, rather than being entirely dependent on regulatory permissions. This change represents a fundamental shock to the fiat currency system, not in terms of whether the scale of a certain type of stablecoin is controllable, but in whether the credit of the dollar can still be managed in a closed-loop manner for its ultimate outcome.

The underlying logic of the GENIUS Act has likely accepted the fact of irreversible expansion of credit boundaries. While clarifying the on-balance-sheet regulatory framework, the United States has not imposed absolute restrictions on offshore issuance and repackaging paths. On the contrary, by granting more flexibility to compliant institutions, a multi-layered currency structure has been established that operates in a "parallel on-off balance sheet and collaborative on-chain off-chain" manner. In this way, U.S. regulatory agencies can maintain the foundational credit position of the U.S. dollar in on-chain systems without intervening in specific operational paths, and control systemic risks through first-layer access mechanisms.

This also explains why the bill emphasizes that overseas issuers should not enter the U.S. market, but does not deny their significance. In fact, the paths of overseas issuance, on-chain repackaging, and protocol loop amplification constitute the basic prototype of a new generation of U.S. dollar expansion model, and their contribution to the influence of the U.S. dollar is no less than that of the traditional offshore dollar system. From this perspective, the Restaking mechanism in DeFi is not only a tool for improving liquidity efficiency within Crypto, but has also become a reference blueprint for credit leverage design in the real financial structure.

Continuous market expectations during the interest rate cut cycle prevent the retrospective indicators from triggering a "bear market"

When observing the price trends of Bitcoin, various indicators can be divided into two main categories based on their mechanism of action and timeliness: a priori indicators and a posteriori indicators. Market sentiment can be seen as an intermediate variable that connects these two types of indicators, acting as a catalyst to trigger supply and demand shifts and accelerate trend reversals.

Leading indicators typically have a slower rate of change and a higher trend prediction capability. These indicators do not imply that prices will immediately reverse, but rather provide early hints of potential structural opportunities, making them very suitable for "left