#美国通胀与货币政策# Reflecting on the inflation data from past economic cycles, today's CPI report is truly thought-provoking. The seasonally unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for July is 2.7%, slightly below expectations, but still at a relatively high level. More noteworthy is that the core CPI year-on-year rate has risen to a five-month high of 3.1%. This combination of data reminds me of the stagflation period in the 1970s, when policymakers also faced a similar dilemma.

History is always astonishingly similar. Over the past few decades, I have witnessed multiple cycles of inflation rise and fall. Each time, the market tends to overinterpret the data, but the true trends often take longer to clarify. The current situation is no exception. Although the overall CPI seems stable, the rise in core inflation cannot be ignored. This reminds me of the early 1980s, when Chairman Volcker had to adopt aggressive interest rate policies to curb inflation.

Historically, current monetary policy makers face a tricky balancing act. On one hand, they need to remain vigilant to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control again; on the other hand, they cannot tighten too much and stifle economic recovery. This delicate balance reminds me of the soft landing in 1994, when the Fed successfully controlled inflation without triggering a recession.

The current economic situation is not exactly the same as any in history, but past lessons are still worth our reference. Closely following the data trends in the coming months will be key. If core inflation continues to rise, we may see more policy tightening. However, if overall inflation remains stable or decreases, then the current policy stance may be maintained. In any case, this will be a critical period worth closely monitoring.