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Recently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.215%, marking the lowest level in a week. This trend highlights the market's strong expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September, especially following the related comments from the Treasury Secretary, prompting investors to position themselves early for long-term interest rates.
The latest employment data and inflation trends clearly convey signals of an economic slowdown. The decline in long-term Intrerest Rate means a reduction in long-term financing costs, which is directly beneficial to the stock market, especially for high-valuation technology stocks. As the discount rate decreases, the valuations of these companies are expected to see further appreciation.
If the Intrerest Rate continues to decline, not only will the stock market benefit, but the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and Bitcoin will also increase, potentially leading to further weakness in the dollar. The bond market seems to be conveying a clear message to the Fed: long-term rates have already voted in favor of easing policies.
This trend may reshape the investment landscape and affect the relative attractiveness of various assets. Investors need to closely monitor the Fed's subsequent policy direction and the performance of different asset classes in this context. At the same time, they should also be wary of potential discrepancies between market expectations and actual policies, and implement effective risk management.