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Recently, the crypto assets market has once again stirred up waves, with the price of ADA coin showing an astonishing rise. The core driving force behind this phenomenon mainly comes from the fervent sentiment in the Korean market.
The ADA/KRW trading pair on Upbit Exchange accounts for 62% of the global trading volume, with the Korean won premium consistently maintained above 4.8%. This data clearly reflects that retail investors in South Korea are flooding into the market. At the same time, the liquidation of short positions has also fueled this pump, with the total amount of liquidated short positions reaching 320 million USD within three days, among which the largest single liquidation amount reached 7 million USD.
The market's expectations for the ADA spot ETF are also driving the price pump. Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability of ADA spot ETF approval from previously less than 10% to 35%, which undoubtedly boosts investor confidence.
However, in this seemingly prosperous market, we also need to be wary of potential danger signals. The total locked value (TVL) on the Cardano chain has not risen but instead dropped by 12%, and the trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) has decreased by 23% week-on-week. This divergence in the ecosystem is worth noting. Meanwhile, the movements of large holders are also concerning, as the top 10 addresses have reduced their holdings by 180 million ADA in just one week, amounting to approximately 130 million USD.
For investors who already hold positions, it is recommended to reduce 50% of their positions immediately when the price breaks through $0.75 (the low point in the past three days). The remaining portion can set a trailing stop loss, and automatically sell when the pullback exceeds 8% to protect profits. For investors who have not yet entered the market, chasing the rise is not recommended; waiting for the price to pull back to the support area of $0.65-$0.68 before considering entry is advised. Only when the price breaks through the previous high of $0.82 and stabilizes on the 4-hour chart can light positions be considered.
During the operation process, it is necessary to closely monitor several key indicators: if Upbit's premium rate falls below 2%, it may indicate that Korean funds are beginning to withdraw; if the ADA/BTC exchange rate drops below 0.000016 (currently at 0.000018), it may mean that the trend is weakening; at the same time, it is also important to closely watch for any ETF-related announcements on the official website of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as this may trigger significant market fluctuations.
Finally, we must remember that the price surge caused by the premium in the Korean market is often accompanied by a sharp decline. Earlier this year in January, the FLOW coin experienced a similar situation: within 48 hours after the disappearance of the Korean won premium, its price was halved. Therefore, investors need to be especially cautious when operating, and remember the operational mantra: 'Do not chase after breaking previous highs, wait for a pullback; when the Korean won premium disappears, run immediately.'