According to the recent Bitcoin Intelligence report, the long term growth of Bitcoin remains at a "breakout" level. Even when compared to other major assets, its trajectory still stands out.
The report compares the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 10 years of Nasdaq, which typically fluctuates between single-digit to double-digit averages, with the most recent decade achieving 16%. Gold achieved an average of 10.65% over the past decade, increasing to 12.88% when adjusted for an annual supply growth rate of 2%.
The annual compound growth rate (CAGR) over 10 years of Nasdaq, gold, Bitcoin and M2 money supply | Source: Bitcoin Intelligence ReportMeanwhile, the M2 money supply in the US has increased by about 6% annually during the same period. Against this backdrop, the estimated CAGR of Bitcoin at 42.5% further highlights its superior performance.
The exponential model based on the power law of the company tracking Bitcoin has shown "unprecedented accuracy" over the past 16 years. The model predicts that the growth rate will gradually slow down due to the impact of widespread adoption, aiming for a level of 30% by 2030 — still three times the adjusted growth rate of gold's supply.
"Bitcoin is still the most accurate measure of global liquidity," the report states, citing its smaller market size and role as a "liquidity sponge" in a structurally expanding monetary environment.
The report shows that the accumulation zone of 114,000–117,000 dollars has proven its ability to hold, triggering a recovery led by the spot market up to 122,000 dollars.
Bitcoin target of 200,000dollarsin Q4 is still on track
Although the short-term resistance level is just above $130,000, Bitcoin's year-end target remains close to $200,000. This price forecast combines the exponential function model method with quantile analysis to track Bitcoin's historical growth trend.
According to the model, the basic trend of Bitcoin by the end of 2025 will be around 120,000 dollars. When adding the factor of a bullish cycle, the price could realistically climb to about 150,000–200,000 dollars. Further out, by 2035, the model predicts Bitcoin could reach 1.2–1.5 million dollars, based on network growth and exponential functions, rather than just relying on speculative frenzies.
Analysis of Bitcoin's Percentile Model | Source: 21st CapitalThe chart shows that every time the "age" of Bitcoin increases by 50%, its price historically increases by about 10 times — a model that has been tracked with high accuracy (R² > 0.95). The trend based on this data, combined with solid on-chain strength and favorable macroeconomic conditions (such as the possibility of future interest rate cuts), suggests that the best prospects for Bitcoin in 2025 may still lie ahead.
Bitcoin Power Law | Source: XThe Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, Matthew Hougan, made a similar observation. In an interview, Hougan stated that the supply-demand balance of Bitcoin is increasingly tilting towards demand, as miners produce fewer coins compared to the amount that publicly listed companies and ETFs are buying.
Hougan said that in May:
"I think in the end that will cause selling pressure at the $100,000 level — where we've been stuck and I believe the next stop above will be $200,000."
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Bitcoin growth is still experiencing a breakout – The strongest phase has just begun
According to the recent Bitcoin Intelligence report, the long term growth of Bitcoin remains at a "breakout" level. Even when compared to other major assets, its trajectory still stands out.
The report compares the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 10 years of Nasdaq, which typically fluctuates between single-digit to double-digit averages, with the most recent decade achieving 16%. Gold achieved an average of 10.65% over the past decade, increasing to 12.88% when adjusted for an annual supply growth rate of 2%.
The exponential model based on the power law of the company tracking Bitcoin has shown "unprecedented accuracy" over the past 16 years. The model predicts that the growth rate will gradually slow down due to the impact of widespread adoption, aiming for a level of 30% by 2030 — still three times the adjusted growth rate of gold's supply.
"Bitcoin is still the most accurate measure of global liquidity," the report states, citing its smaller market size and role as a "liquidity sponge" in a structurally expanding monetary environment.
The report shows that the accumulation zone of 114,000–117,000 dollars has proven its ability to hold, triggering a recovery led by the spot market up to 122,000 dollars.
Bitcoin target of 200,000 dollars in Q4 is still on track
Although the short-term resistance level is just above $130,000, Bitcoin's year-end target remains close to $200,000. This price forecast combines the exponential function model method with quantile analysis to track Bitcoin's historical growth trend.
According to the model, the basic trend of Bitcoin by the end of 2025 will be around 120,000 dollars. When adding the factor of a bullish cycle, the price could realistically climb to about 150,000–200,000 dollars. Further out, by 2035, the model predicts Bitcoin could reach 1.2–1.5 million dollars, based on network growth and exponential functions, rather than just relying on speculative frenzies.
Hougan said that in May:
"I think in the end that will cause selling pressure at the $100,000 level — where we've been stuck and I believe the next stop above will be $200,000."
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