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The U.S. Marshals Service's holdings are far below expectations, which may affect the BTC market trends.
The amount of Bitcoin held by the U.S. Marshals Service sparks market speculation
Recently, a document obtained through the Freedom of Information Act has attracted widespread attention in the cryptocurrency community. The document shows that the U.S. Marshals Service, a division of the Department of Justice, currently holds approximately 28,988 Bitcoins, worth about $3.44 billion. This figure is significantly lower than the previously widely recognized estimate of 200,000 coins, raising speculation about whether the U.S. government has quietly sold off a large portion of its Bitcoin holdings.
However, professionals point out that this data does not fully represent the total Bitcoin holdings of the US government. The key is to understand the difference between "seized assets" and "forfeited assets." The Marshals Service primarily manages assets that have completed the legal process and have had ownership transferred to the government, while other law enforcement agencies may still hold Bitcoins that have not yet completed the forfeiture process.
Nevertheless, the market's discussion on whether the government has sold Bitcoin continues. Some industry insiders suggest that traditional on-chain tracking methods may no longer be sufficient to fully understand the government's trading activities. They speculate that there may be large-scale offline transactions conducted through custodians, which would not leave obvious traces on the blockchain.
The impact of this event may go beyond a mere data dispute. If the US government has indeed significantly reduced its Bitcoin holdings, this could explain the recent long stagnation in Bitcoin prices. More importantly, this may force the government to reconsider its cryptocurrency strategy, especially in the context of establishing a "strategic Bitcoin reserve."
There is a view that if the U.S. government needs to repurchase a large amount of Bitcoin to replenish its reserves, it will have a significant impact on the market. The shift from a potential large-scale seller to a possible buyer could lead to a major restructuring of liquidity, which in turn could affect the trends of the entire cryptocurrency market.
Regardless of the final outcome, this event has injected new variables into the Bitcoin market, and its effects may continue to be evident for some time in the future.