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The latest U.S. inflation data has attracted market attention. This is the first important economic indicator released since the new head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics took office. Although the data from the Cleveland Fed is generally considered to be more precise, the difference in data between the two institutions is not significant this time.
The overall inflation rate remains stable, unchanged from last month at 2.7%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen a slight month-on-month decline, but the core inflation indicators are showing an upward trend. Notably, the year-on-year core inflation rate has exceeded market expectations, primarily due to a significant increase in used car prices.
The overall impression of this data report is not optimistic. Although the CPI has not further increased, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about the core inflation indicators. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index excludes the volatility of food and energy prices; therefore, the core CPI plays a more important role in decision-making.
From the perspective of monetary policy, this set of data may adversely affect the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate cuts. The unexpected rise in core inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious stance, delaying the timeline for rate cuts. This will undoubtedly have far-reaching effects on the financial markets, and investors need to closely monitor subsequent economic indicators and comments from Federal Reserve officials to assess the future direction of policy.