Bitcoin bearish flag breakdown: warning of risks under the pullback path and box oscillation

1. Hourly bearish flag breakdown: failure to retest determines direction

The hour-level chart of the big pie has broken below the bearish flag pattern, and the attempt to pull back into the flag has failed—this means the lower boundary of the flag has become a strong resistance in the short term. Before regaining the inside of the flag, the bullish logic is not valid, and a pullback is the main theme.

Key targets after breaking support:

• If it falls below the 118073 US dollars indicated by the lower yellow arrow, a "lower low" will appear on the hourly chart, continuing down to 117102→116029 US dollars;

• Stop fall observation points: 117102 and 116029 USD need to form a downward continuation consolidation, otherwise further probing down to 114055 USD;

• Retracement termination signal: The flag pattern must be retracted internally; only then can this round of fall be considered over.

2. Short-term Trading Strategy: The Offensive and Defensive Logic of Resistance and Support

• Long Position Strategy (Short-term Only):
Breakthrough volume at 118,791 USD → light position chasing more (short-term bullish strategy), stabilizing at 119,091 USD on the hourly level → target 119,903 → 120,325 USD. Need to be cautious: the 120,000 USD level is "easy to fall below, hard to rise above," a breakthrough requires strong volume support.

• Short Selling Strategy (Continuation of Retracement):
The volume falls below $118,469 → short on the right side, if the rebound cannot recover then stop loss; 4-hour level falls below $118,106 → looking down to $117,051 → $116,047 (after $118,106 is lost, $116,047 is likely to be reached).

3. Daily Double Top Confirmed: Box Range Fluctuations and Replica Trend Warning

• Double Top Confirmation: The daily line shows a long upper shadow and has not broken through the previous high, the "Double Top" pattern is basically formed, with significant pullback pressure;

• Box oscillation return: The current price has fallen back to the 120020-115679 USD box, with 120,000 USD becoming a key resistance.

• Replaying the script: If the movement within the yellow box is repeated, it may first fake a breakout to $120,000 before falling back, followed by a daily-level correction. After breaking the box, it aims for $111,820 to stop the fall and rebound (the script needs verification of volume and pattern, and blind predictions are not allowed).

Summary: Flag pattern breaks down for a correction, box range oscillation awaits direction.

The pancake is currently under dual pressure of "bear flag breakdown + daily double-top test". The core operation: do not chase long positions at the resistance level of $118,791, closely monitor the continuation of the pullback after breaking $118,106, with the lower edge of the range at $115,679 being an important defensive line. Be patient and wait for the plot to develop according to the "script", as volume is the only standard to verify the trend.

Meeting adjourned.