The situation in the US election is tense, can Harris outshine Trump?

Recently, the situation surrounding the U.S. presidential election has become increasingly notable. The candidates' debate on September 10 became the focus of public opinion, marking the first direct confrontation between the two main candidates, and possibly the only debate before the election. The outcome of this debate surprised the market, with many believing that Harris's performance exceeded expectations, while Trump appeared somewhat lackluster.

After the debate, the betting market reacted quickly. Within just two hours, the contract price for Harris's election rose from $53 to $57, while Trump's dropped from $52 to $47, further widening the gap between the two. This change reflects an increased market optimism regarding Harris's chances of winning.

In the debate, Harris stood out on multiple issues. She demonstrated understanding and empathy towards female voters on the abortion issue, sharing personal experiences during the discussion on racial issues, showing a deep understanding of minority groups. Additionally, she emphasized future development plans and intentionally distinguished herself from the previous administration, conveying hope for injecting fresh energy and driving change. In contrast, Trump mainly focused on issues such as illegal immigration, tariff policies, and fossil energy supply, with a more conventional discourse that may struggle to attract moderate voters.

Subsequently, Harris invited Trump for another television debate on social media, attracting attention. She hopes to win more votes through another confrontation.

However, Harris's campaign has not been smooth sailing. On September 24, police reported that her campaign office in Arizona was shot at, leaving four bullet holes in the office's glass door and windows. At the time of the incident, the office was unoccupied, and no injuries were reported. Police initially determined this to be a potential property crime.

There are two interpretations of this incident in the market: one believes this may be a retaliatory action by Trump supporters; the other doubts that this is a self-directed performance by the Harris team, aimed at diverting public attention or confusing the narrative.

In terms of funding, Harris seems to have the upper hand. The latest federal filing documents show that the Harris team’s daily spending far exceeds that of Trump's camp, with an average daily expenditure of $7.5 million in August, compared to just $2.6 million for Trump's camp. In fundraising, Harris is also far ahead, with her team raising a total of $361 million in August alone, bringing the total to $404 million. In contrast, Trump's team raised only $130 million in the same period, with a total of $295 million when including contributions from political action committees.

Sufficient funding has energized Harris's campaign. This funding can be used to expand the national campaign team, increase advertising spending, conduct polls and research, and organize more rallies and door-to-door campaigning.

Harris's personal background has also earned her considerable support. As a woman from a minority background and an immigrant family, with an elite education and extensive political experience, she embodies almost all advantages. However, her political career has also been marked by controversy, including some decisions made during her time as a prosecutor and certain statements and actions during the campaign.

Currently, polls show Harris leading Trump by 1.6%. Among the confirmed electoral votes, Harris has approximately 226 votes, while Trump has about 219 votes. To win, Harris needs 44 more electoral votes, while Trump needs 51.

The policy proposals of the two candidates show significant differences. Harris tends to subsidize residents through fiscal expansion, which may lead to an increase in bond issuance in the short term, adversely affecting bond assets but possibly supporting the dollar. Her tax increase policy may put pressure on U.S. stocks. Trump's policies, on the other hand, are relatively favorable for U.S. stocks, cyclical commodities, and digital currencies, but may impact the dollar.

In the next two months, Trump still has the opportunity to make a comeback. The U.S. presidential election adopts the "Electoral College system", and the candidate who gets the most popular votes may not necessarily be elected. According to the current poll support rates in various states, the situation in swing states is more intense than in previous years. The final result of this presidential election is still full of variables and suspense.