The Future of Crypto Assets: Industry Development from Trump's Strategy

Preface

Trump's governing style is comparable to a large reality show. Less than a month into his term, many have already received "termination notices," from internal staff to foreign leaders. In the next four years, how will Crypto Assets survive as a key player in this "show"? To answer this question, we need to first gain a deeper understanding of this "boss"'s way of doing things.

1. Mastering the Rhythm and Creating Surprises

Trump proposed two core negotiation strategies in his autobiography "The Art of the Deal": "Control the tempo" and "Create surprises". The flexible use of these two strategies not only helped him build a business empire but also set the tone for his political career.

"Controlling the Rhythm" emphasizes dominating the timing process in negotiations; otherwise, you've already lost half the battle. "Creating Surprises" emphasizes suddenly presenting new demands when the opponent is off guard, disrupting their footing.

Looking back at Trump's early business cases, we can clearly see the application of these two strategies:

In the 1976 New York Hyatt Hotel project, he threatened to withdraw from negotiations and suddenly halted work before the budget deadline, forcing the government to significantly increase subsidies.

In 1983, during the Trump Tower project, he suddenly sued the contractor when the project was nearing completion, taking advantage of the other party's eagerness to settle to lower the project payment.

In the 1985 Atlantic City casino acquisition case, he made new demands at the last moment, using the opponent's significant sunk costs to psychologically force them to accept unfavorable terms.

In the recent US-Ukraine talks, Trump once again demonstrated this style: first reaching a consensus with Russia, then making high demands on Ukraine, ultimately leading to the breakdown of negotiations. This highly oppressive negotiation tactic is both his "deal-making rule" and the highly controversial "destructive survival strategy."

Summarize Trump's trading rules:

1. Set targets that are far higher than expected, forcing opponents to accept suboptimal conditions.
2. Use all possible means to pressure opponents and maximize benefits.
3. Capricious, making it difficult for opponents to predict.
4. Make good use of media to amplify the impact of events

The method to deal with this strategy seems quite simple: refuse to trade, refuse to negotiate.

2. Crypto Assets Strategic Reserve

Trump recently announced on social media that XRP, SOL, and ADA will be included in the "encryption strategy reserve," while confirming the core status of ETH and BTC. As soon as the news broke, the market experienced a surge. However, the reaction within the community to this move has been mixed, with some questioning the possibility of insider trading.

Combining with Trump's style of doing things, this action may have the following purposes:

1. Create conditions to promote BTC as a strategic reserve and attract other countries to follow.
2. Use the influence of the presidential identity to manipulate market trends
3. Seek greater influence for the family in the encryption field.
4. Behind "White House Select" may hide a complex network of interests.
5. Seek to convert seized Crypto Assets into strategic reserves, or issue related bonds.
6. To lay the groundwork for the large-scale application of the selected public blockchain in various fields.

3. Destructive Survival Laws

Trump's decision-making style is heavily influenced by his father, tending to view relationships as a "zero-sum game." This mentality leads him to often "demonize" his opponents, exhibiting a strong confrontational attitude in both business and political arenas.

For the Crypto Assets sector, although Trump is seen as the "crypto president," his "America First" and "family first" principles will still dominate his decision-making. Possible measures include:

1. Give priority support to US projects through ETFs and strategic reserves.
2. Provide tax incentives for American projects while potentially increasing the tax burden on other projects.
3. Provide special treatment for family projects, such as regulatory sandboxes, targeted support, etc.

In the future, Trump may take more measures to promote the "Americanization" of Crypto Assets, such as restricting non-American mining pools and adding regulatory interfaces at the protocol level. In the face of this trend, industry participants can either choose alliances or choose to "refuse to trade".

4. The Evolution of Crypto Assets from DOGE

The development of Dogecoin reflects the changes in the Crypto Assets world to some extent. From its origin as a joke mocking Bitcoin to becoming one of the top ten Crypto Assets under the promotion of Musk, Dogecoin has undergone a dramatic transformation.

Today, Crypto Assets seem to be repeating the fate they initially opposed. Bitcoin has evolved from a "decentralized weapon" into a new vehicle of American hegemony, with the market increasingly influenced by the statements of political figures. The original rebels have gradually become part of the establishment, and Crypto Assets have failed to escape the fate of "the dragon-slaying youth ultimately becoming the evil dragon."

5. The Balance of Power and Innovation

Trump's influence on Crypto Assets is a double-edged sword. While his support may drive Bitcoin to new highs, authoritarian intervention and high regulation could stifle industry innovation. In the future, Crypto Assets may split into several factions such as traditionalists and American-style, and competition among public chains will also occur on a larger scale.

Under Trump's strong strategy, this "war" may be exceptionally fierce. However, this may also be the growing pains that the Crypto Assets industry must go through to emerge from its cocoon. The future development will depend on how the industry seeks a balance between power struggles and technological innovation.